The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. A lot of contagion going on... Portugal, Ireland, Spain, even Italy offered now.
     
    #1681     Apr 22, 2010
  2. Belgium's government just toppeled as did Holland's one a few weeks ago.

    The Euro zone is really in the eye of the storm so it seems.
     
    #1682     Apr 22, 2010
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Amazing. My brother who is majoring in business administration wants to go to europe and live there(will study in Spain and Italy first), can you imagine, the guy wants to leave Brazil to live in that basket case. Lets see if I can bring him back to his senses
     
    #1683     Apr 22, 2010
  4. Yep, it's all looking pretty tense here... A German politician (Schaeffler of the FDP) came out and said earlier that Greece should contemplate euro exit, if it can't ensure sufficient austerity measures are implemented. So things are, quite clearly, getting worse...

    GGB May10 was offered at 99.24 earlier. This price, for a 1mo bond, implies a yield of arnd 18%. But then yields are meaningless now, given people are talking seriously about restructuring.
     
    #1684     Apr 22, 2010
  5. Daal

    Daal

    Call me crazy, but isnt that a huge bargain. I just dont see the Greek government admiting that they were wrong and reestructuring now, not after all public active voluntary commitments that the greek leaders made(I believe Robert Cialdini has done some work in this psychology principle, people dont like to lose face). I bet they will ask for some wires from the IMF before they throw the towel. You dont think parking your money in these maturing greek bills is a good idea here?It reminds me of bill gross buying FNM and FRE debt before the bailout, its more tricky in this case but I cant see a bankruptcy without at least a loan or 2
     
    #1685     Apr 22, 2010
  6. If you feel like there will come a (temporary) reversal in the (southern) Europe debt crisis you might want to look at the following stock.


    Morgan Stanley: 39% of Fortis' tangible book value is exposed in Greece, 25% in Portugal, and 69% in Italy.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/who-...to-greece-portugal-and-italy-10#ixzz0lqW483CV
     
    #1686     Apr 22, 2010
  7. It's not a bargain... I wouldn't touch that sh1t with a 10ft pole. I know you're not a fan of risk/reward, but this one is a real good example. In a month's time, you can either make 0.76 of a point or lose 40 points. Would you take those odds?

    Reason, btw, I say 40 pts is because recovery locks (basically, bets on the recovery rate) have now started trading in Greece. Mkt was 53/63 this morning.
     
    #1687     Apr 22, 2010
  8. Daal

    Daal

    These odds I might not take, but make it something like 1-20 and I might be down for it
     
    #1688     Apr 22, 2010
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Where these recovery locks trade, OTC?
     
    #1689     Apr 22, 2010
  10. Yes, interbank, from what I've heard...
     
    #1690     Apr 22, 2010