This has existed for years now... I don't understand what's there to develop, really. Check this out here (based on FedFund futures options prices): http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/fedfunds/index.cfm BBG has the FFIP fuctionality, which allows you to imply the probabilities using either options or futures prices. It's also quite easy to create your own spreadsheet in Excel, but would very much depend on how sophisticated you wanna get. The Cleveland Fed methodology is quite rigorous and accurate.
The CME one might be quasi-real time(15min delayed), thats useful for us traders without bloomberg terminals
Well, if you want that, why don't you just create your own spreadsheet that will be full realtime? It's honestly not very hard, depending on accuracy desired. And you'll have full control over the methodology and the functionality.
Bill Dudley speech has lots of kind words and justifications for 'extended period'. Looks like there will be at least one more meeting with that, making the first hike possible in Nov 2-3 at the earliest. That shouldn't prevent Greenlaw from reaching all time highs in his confidence(along with the stock market)
Great piece by contrary investor http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm They raise the serious possibility the Fed will have to embark on QE 2.0, Greenlaw is yet to explain why in the world the fed will raise rates during a private sector credit crunch
The rumor is that the Fed board raises the discount rate in April 5. This could easily not happen. In http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100222/expedited.htm but specially on Mar 15 and 16 they had that type of meeting http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100315/expedited.htm http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100316/expedited.htm They decided on no change. Furthermore there was no speeches warning of some kind of hike
The Dec 99 calls have pulled back to 33 and might drop a couple of more ticks today - that'll be more than a double if you are right. Are you buying more?
I'm waiting till I'm sure libor has stopped going up(its at short-term highs now). Also I'm curious how a big NFP number will affect all the Fed speeches
I'm pretty sure Bob Barberra just shot his load on CNBC. Haven't seen one of those on-air orgasms on squawk box since Maria used to do it regularly during the tech bubble.
Drobny does it again(non-affiliated link) http://www.amazon.com/Invisible-Han...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270461007&sr=1-1 Does anyone has a list of the guys in it?Apparently there are sme folks from the last book. Cant wait to see how they did during the crisis