Niederhoffer and his crew do not have a high opinion of Buffet for some reason. Certainly, his returns over the past couple of decades have benefited from favorable tax treatment and yes, he does know folks in high places. However, to dismiss what he has done over an entire career borders on the insane. What Buffet did from the mid 1950s thru the mid 80s is Tiger-like and holds incredible lessons for anybody in this business.
I spent a good deal of time yesterday delving into these employment numbers, the snowstorm, and the census hiring. I don't think there is any question that there are going to be some enormous job gains over the next quarter. It wouldn't surprise me to see at least one print over 500K jobs. The gubmint is hiring 1.5 MILLION census workers. In 2000, we hired 300K. In 1990, we hired 200K. The effect is going to be huge. Throw in the fact that the BO administration has cagely seen that at least $200B of the stimulus money is still available to be spent in the months leading up to the election. The economy will be looking relativelyy strong for the remainder of the year. Hats off to the BO administration. Despite all of their other issues, I believe they will have unemployment and the economy under control at election time. After the election is a different story, but those looking for stocks or the economy to take a significant header in 2010 are going to be disappointed.
The gubmint is hiring 1.5 MILLION census workers. In 2000, we hired 300K. In 1990, we hired 200K. The effect is going to be huge. __________________________________________________- Not gona see anything close, the Gov is laying off starting with the muni's, school district as in KC. This is just the First city, many will follow. States, most of the 50, will be laying of State Workers and Fed will have to lay off. Do not kid yourself, Census workers are not going to push the Jobs number lower as far as showing a gain....we should still hover around 400k or so. Numbers are out today.....not looking good.
Don't forget that other $200B in stimulus money - this is $ going to states and municipalities for roads, potholes, stupid construction projects - this will keep layoffs more subdued than otherwise, at least through the election.
Just bought a small position on GGP at $14.5, a stock I almost bought last year at $2(damn). Bill Ackman case on the stock makes sense and the $15 bid for the company puts some kind of floor while I wait for a higher bid or its post bk valuation to reach the industry level
I know I'm going on about the same point here, but I find the 50% rise in AIG in the last week and a bit funny, especially given that earlier in March it warned that it may require additional bailout money.
Yellen said to be top choice for fed vice-chairman choice http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aKyXWYGlO.SA Front not moving on this but to me its quite big, it would mean a dovish chairman and a very dovish vice chair. As some ex-FOMC voters say 'its hard to vote against the chairman, even when you disagree', in this case it would be a triple whammy as the chair, vice-chair and NY fed chair are all dovish and quite concerned about withdrawing stimulus early/deflation
WSJ, CNBC and NYTimes all confirm Yellen as the WH choice so its not a rumor almost a done deal. Buy your wheelbarrels at amazon.com with free shipping
"Even with my moderate growth forecast, the economy will be operating well below its potential for several years," Yellen said on Feb. 22. "If it were possible to take interest rates into negative territory I would be voting for that."
In all fairness the fact that the Fed is moving from 2day policy meetings to 1day is definetly hawkish http://www.cnbc.com/id/35820216