In 3 months I will quote your post here and we can comment on the S&P 500 level at that point ( that's December 1st, 2010 ). I can't wait to hear your excuses why you are so out of touch with the market conditiions in 2010.
Ok, you said 9600 will become 9000 and maybe 8000. So now its 10500, you lost 9% on your theory in short order if its just index investments, much worse if you bought stocks or options. So now what. Tell me what the index will be end of next week, end of the month, end of the year. If you are so confidant in your thesis, should you not liquidate everything you own and short the market first thing Monday ? Kind of a "sale" for market pessimists ? My instincts are telling me the prevelance of irrational pessimism on Elite Trader and on CNBC tells me we are still in a bull market. But index levels really don't matter we are now in a stock pickers market with sector rotation being very important ( to the fellow who claims we are not in a stock pickers market, do not live in the past what occurred then does not determine what happens now; I am seeing divergences in stocks already ).
Stock dispersion measures past time periods and does not measure what occurs moving forward. The fact it is at an all time lows should tell you it will likely rise now as the indexes have been going nowhere all year ( they are in a channel ). The market going up is simply a retracement ( again ) from the channel bottom to the channel top. There is no desperation involved in observing this, it is simply another money making opportunity. My observation is that declaring pending market crashes is usually a money losing game, very few can time the corrections. The main thrust of the drops usually occur premarket on some random day. For example, anyone believing the pessimists on this thread have been dinged for at least 10% since thread inception. Do that a few times you are going to need that 30% crash just to break even. One strategy that might work is identify companies with very bad balance sheets and buy Leap Puts on them near the end of these up cycles.
i am shorting these false rallies. my theseis is still VERY MUCH intact. i am not wrong and look at these rallies at fabulous short opportunities.
look at the chart, inverse H&S pattern u can short till 60 to 75 but if it breaks 1104 again this goes back to 1200
that's funny how someone who registered in May 2010 teaches people with many years of experience the problem is that you don't have any experience or idea how market works and you don't have any instincts elitetrader is a community of people who have information CNBC is permabull station and they are superbullish all the time also - stock picking is dead right now. All assets moves are syncronized, thanks to HFT