I was watching World Poker Tour a week or two ago and this guy Tuan Le was keep taking money from everybody until he got a little wishy-washy with his bets probably because he was so much ahead. After a tiny drawdown, he tightened up and played great again. I think the so called boom-bust cycle of individual performance mentioned by Soros has less to do with bio-rhythm, superstition or preconceived limitation but more to do with consistency. Just because the equity curve shots straight up doesn't mean some bad thing is about to happen unless one readily deviates from the plan when one needs the (prepared) plan most... making bad thing worse. I have two rules written on a piece of paper sticking in front of me: 1) Trade the fixed fractional position size (No overtrading or scaling in). 2) Only trade my setup. I trade ES intraday reversals and these two rules can be expanded into four: 1) Trade the fixed fractional position size. 2) Wait for time of day for my setup. 3) Trade in the direction of the bias. 4) Honor stop loss for the trade when enter incorrectly. This is a patient game! No mental baggage.
Tuan Le is the best player out there right now, imho. He wasnt getting wishy washy, he was pushing when he was hot then tightend the reigns when he cooled off. I love to watch this guy.
I think the so called boom-bust cycle of individual performance mentioned by Soros has less to do with bio-rhythm, superstition or preconceived limitation but more to do with consistency. Just because the equity curve shots straight up doesn't mean some bad thing is about to happen unless one readily deviates from the plan when one needs the (prepared) plan most... making bad thing worse. Do not believe it. I am disciplined, cut my losses, do not tilt (revenge etc.), patient like nobody else, seeing first, second, third set up to work beautifully than taking the position and getting slapped like a bitch CONSISTENTLY. Fucking amazing. Statistics or not I have a hard time to believe I am not fucking cursed.
But if you take the first, second and third setups as well so what if you got spank the fourth time (although I don't trade like a robot either... I like the first setup). 3-times the charm... everybody probably already piled in.
I know people will explain away with market cycle in relationship to the setup, mental capitalization, etc. etc. But that is not very useful to view it like that imho. What really drives the cycle?
tuan lee scored the highest average hands played on every poker tourny~75% he's da most aggressive player in da circuit and has already accumulated more than $4.000.000; will have a staggerin' poker career.
If you consider yourself a "discretionary" trader, it is by default that you will experience peaks and valleys simply by the fact that you can only be in rhythm with the markets for so long. You can trade period "A" near-perfectly but that just sets up period "B" which tends to do the most harm to those who were in sync with A in the first place.
I have not traded long enough to be sure but it seems like the harm is coming solely from my mismanagement (of the trade and one's expectation).