First off, what you have described is NOT a "holy grail". What you have described is a edge that you have claimed to have found, that is quantifiable with a formula and that can then be exploited. You yourself then go on to say that if a larger number of people came to know this formula that chances are it would stop working. That is the VERY definition of a edge, not a "holy grail". What you claim to have found is what investment firms invest in highly skilled mathematicians, engineers and others to find and exploit with algorithmic trading. The difference with them is that they mathematically understand this is a "edge" that can be found and exploited for a period of time before it is lost as market players mature, change and adapt. As you have pointed out yourself, you have not been live trading this for a long period of time, yet somehow you have fallen into the rookie mistake of forward projecting ASSUMED returns and chosen to ignore that you yourself have pointed out its a edge that can/will be lost in time as more market participants exploit the same thing. If your smart enough to quantify the edge that you claim to have found with a formula, then you should also be smart enough to quantify the derogation of that edge over time into the future and adjust your "projected" spreadsheet returns to reflect this instead of assuming a 1 dimensional constant increasing compounding return. Investment firms literally spend millions finding edges to exploit but they understand it is only ever an edge and will only ever be a edge and that sooner or later it will be lost. "Holy grail' on the other hand is a fixed thing that will not be lost over time because of how many know about it. The only holy grail is co-location and utilizing different order types to exploit known gaps in the market process. You then make claims such as Which reads as if its a statement of fact, yet you have not supplied your "Holy grail" to anyone that would provide such an endorsement. Instead your making assumptions once again. You then go on to say - Absolute proof that what you are describing is a edge, not a "holy grail". This leads to the conclusion based on this thread that considering that you have not provided any actual underlying data, formula, rules or system but you have provided a lot of spreadsheets showing ASSUMED future profits and mentioned a few tempting marketing "hooks" about how great your system is, how it "could" be taught to others in 300hrs (But it wont be because then the edge will disappear), that what the real goal here is, is to create interest in your system and at some future time it will be available for the less fortunate to invest their money into someway (either directly or through a signal service). If I were a more cynical person who had been around trading for a number of years, I would hazard a guess that this would then be followed in 6-12 months with the "system" failing in some way and a number of signal followers getting their panties in a bunch when there is a "unforeseen" loss of their account on a martingale blow out that had been assured would not/could not happen because the spreadsheets show what will happen into the future. (After all, spreadsheets don't lie........ Do they) Luckily I'm not that cynical person, instead I'm bright eyed, bushy tailed and wet behind the ears.
Bear Runner As long as the option formula remains the same , this edge will always remain .As long as the world keeps using this option pricing model , this holy grail or edge will remain. so best thing to do is for me keep quiet abut the specifics.The minute my formula become public , no option seller will want to sell due to risk reward, instead he would want to trade my formula.
I have come across many idiots over the years, and keep finding them every day when it comes to trading. You can give away as many holy grails as you like, as it will not make one little bit of difference. The only thing a trader needs to worry about is him/her self, for that is the only true holy grail when it comes to trading.
Here is the risk sheet , showing the risk in col a and b . The related formula makes 200 ticks a week ,calculated risks on excel
Its funny but how do you know you're not one of the "too stupid to know your stupid" people? The reason I say this is I have been trading 34 years and I wish I could tell you how many posts like this I have seen during that time that all end up failing miserably a year or two later. Trading can never be boiled down to a math problem those that try end up writing Algo's and then the algo stops working eventually as well. Best of luck though
Algorithmic trading does work. Just don't assume it will work in the same way until you die, strategies stop working or at least need severe re-adjustment. He's just so excitable having found something, not realizing many have done so before and their strategies also stopped working.
It eliminates the following issues Dude, Are you still trying to trade trends? YOU SHOULD NOT RESPOND IN THE FOLLOWING THREAD Dunning kruger traders
What is your current status in relation to 1 months live trading and 6 months live trading: No. of trades % Winners % Losers Max Drawdown % % Profit or Loss of cash account value Note that I have not asked you to mention any details of $ values, as that is your private details which is no one else's business.
Prepare yourself for the back-test results in spreadsheet form...... Live trading..... What's that.... But GUARANTEED, future results WILL meet or exceed back-tested results. Every guru says so. So, OP, when are the applications coming to register our interest in investing in this guaranteed system or instructions on how to sign up for the signal service..... Ahhhh, "grail hunters" never change.