The Coming Renationalization of Petrobras.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by SouthAmerica, Jul 8, 2008.

  1. .

    July 18, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Libertad

    You said: “Your points are coming clearer in the sense that every country must review the resources that they have, and thus create objectives to form the framework and infrastructure on which the government of their choice can form.”

    You have grasped what I am saying and trying to do.

    I don’t care about obsolete old labels from an age long gone.

    I have designed and now I want to implement the above economic development plan using any tools that are available to me today.

    I want to build the foundations for Brazil to be able to develop a new society with the latest in technology of the 21st Century.

    I always think out of the box and that makes the people inside the box very uncomfortable.

    For me the sky is the limit and I believe we can build a magnificent future in Brazil with all kinds of state of the art leading edge technologies.

    Don’t get me wrong here, we already have a spectacular country in Brazil – In my opinion we have one of the most beautiful countries on earth.

    After we have installed the nuclear power plants around Brazil in strategic locations to maximize their utility and wire Brazil with fiber optics broadband technology that will help generate millions of jobs around the country. We will be able to redesign the education system for the 21st Century, and we will be able to improve very rapidly a new system of healthcare for the population using this state of the art in communications and delivery system of healthcare technology.

    I have no doubt that we can turn Brazil in a short period of time into a country of tomorrow.

    The Chinese are doing it in China, and I am sure that we also can do it in Brazil.

    The people who are talking about all kinds of limitations about this project and Brazil, they are really talking about their personal limitations and not mine or my country. I have no limitations and for me the sky is the limit.


    *****


    Oraclewizard77: You may be correct in that Brazil is able to use its government better for social projects, but you seem to have an overall anti-American attitude.


    *****


    SouthAmerica: Brazil was able to do it because of the Generals, under free market thinking today we probably still importing 90 percent of Brazil’s oil needs as they did in the mid-1970’s.

    The Brazilian economy would be a mess today and Brazil probably would be on its way to the poor house.

    The free market would have prevented Brazil from changing its course – and the Brazilian economy would be hostage to imported oil.

    Maybe we need the Generals back, since under the Generals the Brazilian economy did very well with high growth and prosperity.

    As a matter of fact until the election of 2000 I was hardly interested in American politics, I always have been interested in economics and investments, but not American politics.

    Then we had that fiasco in November of 2000, and an idiot became president of the United States and he surrounded himself with a group of incompetent people. Suddenly I became anti-Bush and his administration in January 2001 and the rest is history.

    And now we are left with almost no choice in November 2008, and the only candidate that is worth for the people to vote since voting for him that would mean real change, and he has substance – his name is Ralph Nader.

    You said: “If Brazil buys out the public company at a higher price than it was trading, then you are right, there is nothing wrong with that option. The problem I have is with other countries just taking over assets and not giving current shareholders any compensation.”

    I mentioned on my article about how the Brazilian government would go about to purchase the outstanding shares in public hands.

    It is better this way, because I would not want to have to deal with the minority shareholders about every move that it is done in the implementation of the economic development plan. The minority shareholders could become a major pain in the ass with their lawsuits and so on….

    You also said: “I would like to point out that while America has not yet innovated on energy companies,”

    The United States is becoming Pathetic in the energy area. The power grid on our area of the country is falling apart and very often we have black outs. Slowly we are becoming a 3dr world country. I bought a number of powerful fleshlights and keep them around the house because of these regular power failures and many times these power failures last for hours.

    You said: “Brazil did the best job on energy innovations, and it would have been much better if we duplicated it rather than went with corn.”

    I don’t agree with you. Brazil has solved its problem and they are doing a great job, but the Brazilian solution can’t be replicated by the United States or in most countries around the world.

    The United States needs to develop its own solutions and building 100 nuclear power plants and using electric cars are a better solution for the US.

    The US does not need to use only one solution it can be a combination of new technologies solar panels on rooftops, and the new technologies that people might be developing right now.

    This transition would take at least 15 years – a time when Americans can be building the nuclear power plants, and the fleet of cars around the US can be replaced with the new fleet of electric cars.

    By the way GM had a terrific electric car that they killed about 10 years ago. Everybody that had the chance to drive the GM electric car loved it, but GM had to drop that car because of pressure from the GM dealers because the new electric car did not required maintenance and the dealers were going to lose 33 percent of their regular business, and they told GM that many dealers would not be able to survive because they would lose such a big chunk of their business.

    The people who were driving the GM electric cars love it because the car did not require any maintenance such as oil changes, tune-ups, and other expensive engine jobs.

    And today they have new batteries for electric cars that let you drive it for 500 miles before you need a recharge it and the new system takes only 5 minutes to recharge these new batteries.

    If you can speak fluent Spanish then you would not have any problem understanding Portuguese, and many Brazilians speak English anyway.

    If you ever go to Brazil I am sure that you will love that place – the Brazilians are very nice people, the food is great, and the place is magnificent.

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    #71     Jul 18, 2008
  2. .

    July 23, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Early Monday morning I received an email from Brazil from a regular reader of Brazzil magazine and he attached a copy of the enclosed article published on JBOnline on July 21, 2008 as follows:

    Then I posted the following on Brazzil magazine in the comments section following my latest article about Petrobras.

    Petrobras and Halliburton - Not a good association.

    By the way, when you see smoke you can bet there is fire.

    If the Brazilian government want to keep the system clean regarding the new oil finds in Brazil then Petrobras should avoid doing business with companies such as Halliburton since they have a very bad reputation and that company has been taking the US government for a ride in a big way in Iraq.

    By doing business with companies such as Halliburton then Petrobras would be signaling to the world that it is open season in Brazil and it is O.K. for the crooks of the world to come and feast and take the Brazilian government for a ride – and in that case then Petrobras has to say goodbye to any form of transparency and to accountability.

    The association with Halliburton is a very bad start for this new era of oil development in Brazil. In the United States that company gets away with just about anything because of its close associations with the current vice president of the United States – under other circumstances the management of that company probably would be all in Jail.


    *****


    JBOnline – 21 de Julho de 2008

    “Petróleo para a atual e gerações futures”

    Léo de Almeida Neves - MEMBRO DA ACADEMIA PARANAENSE DE LETRAS, EX-DEPUTADO FEDERAL E EX-DIRETOR DO BANCO DO BRASIL

    Governo e povo têm o dever indeclinável de carrear os benefícios da exploração do "ouro negro" para a atual e futuras gerações. Será crime de lesa-pátria fazer o jogo de poderosas multinacionais. Tive a primazia de levantar essa questão na imprensa, com meu artigo Nova campanha do ‘petróleo é nosso’.

    É plenamente admissível estimar-se as reserva totais de petróleo do Brasil em 90 bilhões de barris, por conta da fabulosa província petrolífera que a natureza nos prodigalizou na camada pré-sal, abrangendo 800 quilômetros de costa do Espírito Santo até Santa Catarina.

    Multiplicando-se 90 bilhões de barris de petróleo por US$ 100 o barril (supondo-se improvável queda da vigente cotação de US$ 140) representa uma riqueza fantástica de US$ 9 trilhões, da qual a União deve ser aquinhoada com parcela significativa a ser destinada a um Fundo Soberano Intergeracional, como fez a Noruega.

    Esse Fundo poderá pagar nossa dívida interna, cobrir o déficit da Previdência Social, suprir deficiências de infra-estrutura, revolucionar a educação e a saúde, distribuir royalties a Estados e municípios produtores, modernizar nossas Forças Armadas e, ainda, diminuir a carga tributária.

    Para tanto há que se modificar o marco regulatório da legislação do petróleo, que outorga concessões de conformidade com a Lei 9478/ 97, que estabeleceu o fim do monopólio da União na exploração do petróleo e permitiu a entrega de blocos, mediante licitações pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP). As concessionárias que acharem petróleo ficam donas do produto, e a União tem participação de apenas 0 a 40% em exploração de águas profundas, enquanto no mercado mundial a média recebida pelos países concedentes é de 84%.

    Não se pode ignorar o ensinamento da história de que as Guerras do Petróleo justificam invasões e derrubadas de governo, criam países independentes e impõem ditaduras.

    Até agora a atitude do governo Lula tem sido exemplar: antes do 9º leilão tirou 41 blocos localizados próximos às áreas do pré-sal; segurou o 8º leilão, que contém 10 áreas nas mesmas condições, suspendeu novos leilões e tem defendido através da voz do presidente da República, do ministro de Minas e Energia e da ministra-Chefe da Casa Civil, Dilma Rousseff, e do presidente da Petrobras, José Sergio Gabrielli, uma nova disciplina legal.

    "A melhor idéia – com a qual eu concordo totalmente – é adotar o regime de partilha de produção", diz o ministro Edson Lobão, de Minas e Energia, que esclarece: "Nos países que adotam esse modelo existe uma estatal com 100% de capital do governo para ditar o ritmo de produção e supervisionar a exploração dos campos. Não é para furar poço, que seria tarefa para a Petrobras e as outras prestadoras de serviço".

    Enquanto isso, sorrateiramente, forças sub-reptícias se mobilizam e se contrapõem às soluções patrióticas. Exigem o imediato reinício dos leilões, ao mesmo tempo que invocam a lei de Fernando Henrique para defender a unificação das áreas interligadas já leiloadas e, assim, abocanhar as imensas áreas do pré-sal – não licitadas – pertencentes à União. Não querem mudar o regime jurídico das concessões. Não admitem que o Brasil se transforme em potência mundial!

    De outro lado, parlamentares de mentalidade paroquial centralizam a discussão de assunto com tal magnitude para os destinos da nação, na participação percentual de Estados e municípios para a divisão dos royalties, particularmente os do Rio de Janeiro versus São Paulo.

    Preocupante a declaração do embaixador norte-americano Brad Clifford Sobel, em sua recente visita a São Paulo, "de que está surgindo uma nova área de cooperação entre os dois países, o petróleo, que enxerga oportunidades de parcerias com petrolíferas americanas como Exxon e Chevron, ou empresas fornecedoras de serviços como a Halliburton".

    O embaixador disse que funcionários do seu governo "devem vir ao Brasil em breve para tratar do assunto e que o secretário de Segurança Interna dos EUA, Michael Chertoff, chegará na próxima semana".

    Com maior repercussão, os Estados Unidos anunciaram que vão reativar a IV Frota, que ficará responsável pelas águas da América Latina e Caribe, o Atlântico Sul; A V Frota cobre o Golfo Pérsico e garante a supremacia norte-americana no Oriente Médio; a VI é baseada no Mar Mediterrâneo e a VII no Japão, gigantescos porta-aviões compõem essas armadas que são dotadas de armas nucleares.

    O almirante Gary Roughead, chefe de Operações Navais da Marinha dos EUA, declarou restabelecida a IV Frota com as seguintes palavras: "Não se enganem; essa frota estará pronta para qualquer operação, a qualquer hora em qualquer lugar".

    O contra-almirante Joseph Kernan, comandante da IV Frota, atribui a esta "funções pacíficas para atendimentos humanitários e combate ao narcotráfico".

    Ainda bem que, por proposta do presidente José Sarney, a ONU tornou o Atlântico Sul Zona de Paz, livre de armas nucleares. A Resolução 41/11 foi aprovada em 27.10.1986, por 126 votos a favor e um contra, o dos Estados Unidos.

    Por tudo, modificar com base na experiência internacional a regulamentação da Lei do Petróleo torna-se imperativo de soberania nacional, principalmente agora que o Brasil ostenta a terceira maior reserva mundial dessa exponencial riqueza.

    Source:

    http://quest1.jb.com.br/editor...21022.html

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    #72     Jul 23, 2008

  3. southamerica and the Temple of Doom


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    #73     Jul 23, 2008
  4. .

    October 25, 2008

    SouthAmerica: I just checked the website of the Brazilian Central Bank and they had a net balance of US$ 204 billion dollars available as of October 23, 2008

    In my opinion the Brazilian government should take this opportunity to buy as many ADR common shares as they can in the next few weeks as the U.S. stock market test the 7,000 level of the Dow Jones.

    During this next stock market meltdown the Petrobras common stock (NYSE: PBR) probably will go down from its current level of US$ 20 per share.

    As the stock starts declining the Brazilian government should buy at each lower value as many shares as they can buy – and hopefully the Brazilian government will be able to buy back at least 1 billion shares of ADR common stock by the end of 2008.

    This will be a period of panic selling and the Petrobras stock could go down very fast from US$ 20 to US$ 10 per share in a short period of time.

    Right now Petrobras has 1,356,900,332 common shares of ADR’s trading in the NYSE and the Brazilian government might be able to buy 1 billion shares for about $ 15 billion dollars.

    That would increase the Brazilian Government ownership of the common stock of Petrobras from the current 55.7 % to 75.4 % and also would decrease the (ADR’s) American Depository Receipts Level 3 common stock from 26.6 % to 6.9 %.

    The Brazilian government should buy only the ADR’s common shares since the ADR’s of preferred stock are non-voting shares and they are not convertible into common stock.

    If the Brazilian government can follow this strategy and buy back 20 percent of the common stock of Petrobras for about US$ 15 billion dollars that would be the best investment that the Brazilian government can make for the long-term. That would be a real bargain.

    Time the purchases in such a way that you don’t push the stock up at any time, and just average your purchases in the way down.

    During the Panic selling the seller probably are being forced to sell their positions because of margin calls or to cover redemptions from their investors and they would be glad that the Brazilian government is buying these common shares.

    This probably it will be a unique opportunity for the Brazilian government and they need to be ready to act immediately.

    By the way, when I wrote the article “Why Brazilians Should Demand the Renationalization of Petrobras” which was published on Brazzil magazine on July 8, 2008 – when I was writing that article around June 30, 2008 the Petrobras ADR’s common stock was trading around US$ 70 per share. And on Friday October 24, 2008 the Petrobras ADR’s common stock was trading as low as US$ 20 per share.


    *****



    Per Petrobras website as of 9/30/08

    The Brazilian government owns 55.7% of Petrobras' common shares.

    Voting capital – Common shares

    Capital Ownership (09/30/2008)

    Shareholders = Shares %

    Total Outstanding Common shares = 5,073,347,344 = 100.0%

    Brazilian Federal Government = 2,826,516,456 = 55.7 %

    American Depository Receipts Level 3 = 1,356,900,332 = 26.6 %

    Other foreigners = 181,967,199 = 3.6 %

    Other entities = 707,963,357 = 14.1 %


    Source: Petrobras website
    http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/ing/InformacoesAcionistas/ComposicaoCapitalSocial.asp

    (Note) Info from Petrobras website: The Brazilian government is required by law to own at least a majority of our voting stock and currently owns 55.7% of our common shares, which are our only voting shares.



    *************************



    Info from: Bloomberg.com

    Petrobras as of 10/24/08

    Short Interest 22,148,460.000


    Wrong information:

    Bloomberg is showing only 50 % of common shares:

    Shares
    (Millions) 2,536.674

    Float
    (Millions) 2,536.674


    Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PBR


    *****


    Correct information should be:

    Per Petrobras website as of 9/30/08

    Total Outstanding Common Shares = 5,073,347,344 = 100.0%

    Brazilian Federal Government = 2,826,516,456 = 55.7 %

    American Depository Receipts Level 3 = 1,356,900,332 = 26.6 %

    (NYSE: PBR) - ADR’s Float = 1,356,900,332 common shares


    Source:
    http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/ing/InformacoesAcionistas/ComposicaoCapitalSocial.asp

    (Note) Info from Petrobras website: The Brazilian government is required by law to own at least a majority of our voting stock and currently owns 55.7% of our common shares, which are our only voting shares.


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    #74     Oct 25, 2008
  5. .

    August 18, 2009

    SouthAmerica: In the last year my article about the “Renationalization of Petrobras” had about 7,713 hits on Brazzil magazine (hits as of Aug. 17, 2009) and most likely close to 10,000 hits on the RGE Monitor website. (My latest article about the “New Asian Currency” is getting close to 30 % more hits on RGE Monitor website than on Brazzil magazine)


    *****


    “Brazil Seeks More Control Over Oil Beneath Its Seas”
    By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
    Published: August 17, 2009
    The New York Times

    RIO DE JANEIRO — Faced with the world’s most important oil discovery in years, the Brazilian government is seeking to step back from more than a decade of close cooperation with foreign oil companies and more directly control the extraction itself.

    The move is part of a nationalistic drive to increase the country’s benefits from its natural resources and cement its position as a global power. But it could significantly slow the development of the oil fields at a time when the world is looking for new sources, energy and risk analysts said.

    This month, Brazil’s government said it wanted the national oil company, Petrobras, to control all future development of the deep-sea fields discovered in 2007, which international geologists estimate could hold tens of billions of barrels of recoverable oil.

    The change would make Petrobras the operator for the 62 percent of the new area that has yet to be bid out, consigning foreign companies to the role of financial investors. That would limit their ability to help set the pace for the oil fields’ development, while giving Petrobras significantly more power to generate jobs and award lucrative contracts.

    The oil lies beneath about 20,000 feet of water, shifting sand, and a thick layer of salt. This so-called pre-salt region, stretching hundreds of miles, is the biggest oil reserve being developed in the world today, especially given the lack of headway in gaining access to Iraq’s extensive deposits, said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research consultancy. It is also expected to be among the most complicated sets of projects in the history of the oil industry.

    “The timing and scale of the development of the pre-salt will be one of the most significant factors for the global oil balance in the next decade, and even more so after 2020,” when Brazil is expected to ramp up production even further, Mr. Yergin said. “If it doesn’t happen it will be a big setback for Brazil in terms of revenue, and a significant loss for the world in terms of new oil supplies.”

    For Brazil, the stakes are high. Many here see the oil as a magic bullet for tackling the country’s biggest social challenges. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s popular president, wants to alter energy laws to funnel more revenue from the undeveloped fields to government coffers and set up funds to improve education and health care. His proposal will be delivered to Congress sometime next week, one of his aides said Monday.

    Despite its recent economic boom, Brazil still struggles with extreme poverty, inequality and an illiteracy rate over 10 percent.

    Government officials here insist Brazil will not be swept up in the sort of nationalistic fervor that has washed across Latin America in recent years. As Mexico did in the late 1930s, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador have reduced the presence of foreign energy companies, only to have their production of oil and natural gas stagnate or decline.

    Mr. da Silva’s government is not proposing that foreigners be excluded altogether from energy projects, or even that they not be given the chance to win majority stakes in some cases. Foreign companies are already involved in the first set of pre-salt projects, including the giant field, called Tupi, that Petrobras estimates holds five to eight billion barrels of oil and natural gas.

    Even without the next group of pre-salt fields, Brazil is looking to more than double its oil production to 5.7 million barrels a day by 2020.

    Brazil, which discovered big oil late in its economic development, has a diversified economy that will help it to avoid the “Dutch Disease” of natural resource dependence that has afflicted several of the world’s oil powers, said José Sergio Gabrielli, the president of Petrobras.

    “Petrobras is very big,” Mr. Gabrielli said, “but Brazil is bigger than Petrobras.”

    He said the nationalism bubbling up now “is not nationalism against foreigners” but rather a debate over the speed of the development, who will get the largest share of the income stream and who will benefit from the related technology and knowledge.

    Still, he acknowledged that nationalistic winds were beginning to blow again. With Brazil’s green and yellow flag draped over the stage, oil union members watched a new documentary here last month, “The Oil Must be Ours — Ultimate Frontier.” In the film, geologists, union leaders and even a 92-year-old physician, Maria Augusta Tibiriçá, discuss how the new fields could generate “trillions of dollars” and transform Brazil’s future.

    A dozen union members led off the evening with a rendition of Brazil’s national anthem, then “It Will Happen,” a song written for the movie that blends bossa nova and samba rhythms.

    If oil “is very deep under the sea,” they sang, “will we play to win?”

    The new nationalistic fervor recalls the 1970s and 1980s, when Brazil’s military government declared that “the Amazon is ours” to ward off foreign encroachments on the rain forest.

    And that evokes the initial protectionist concerns that were raised after a trickle of oil was discovered in Brazil in 1939. A few years later, a general declared “the oil is ours” amid fears that American oil companies would find a way to take it. Protesters demonstrated through the 1950s outside of Standard Oil’s Esso Building in downtown Rio.

    It was in that populist climate that, in 1953, President Getúlio Vargas founded Petrobras and awarded it an oil monopoly. Only in 1997 were foreign companies allowed to participate in exploration and production.

    Mr. da Silva’s plans for more control of the new fields will face a stiff battle in Brazil’s Congress, where opposition leaders say they will push to delay the plan, to deny him a victory that could be a political boost to Dilma Rousseff, his chief of staff and chosen candidate to succeed him in next year’s election.

    Ms. Rousseff, who is in charge of the government’s pre-salt proposal, is also the chairwoman of the Petrobras board of directors. The company is 55.7 percent government-owned; other members of the board are also political appointees.

    “The government is going to use every ideological, nationalist and emotional argument to try to get this approved before next year’s election, but it is going to be very difficult for it to pass,” said Tasso Jereissati, a senator from the Brazilian Social Democratic Party who is critical of the government’s proposal.

    Brazil’s Senate is already coping with a broad investigation into irregularities and improprieties at Petrobras, an inquiry brought by Mr. da Silva’s political opposition.

    Mr. Gabrielli, the Petrobras president, argues that the government has good reasons for wanting to limit foreign participation. In 1997, oil prices were much lower and Brazil’s economy was struggling. Today, Brazil has more than $220 billion in foreign reserves, oil prices are higher and Petrobras has become the fourth biggest company in the Americas.

    “The financial condition is completely different,” Mr. Gabrielli said. And the development of the new fields, once seen as risky, “now is a winning lottery ticket.”

    With concerns over whether Brazil can procure the estimated $600 billion it will take to develop new fields over the next 20 years or so, the government is banking on international oil companies’ willingness to bid high.

    “This is the only large oil discovery in the last few years; there is no other,” Ms. Rousseff said this month in an interview with the Brazilian newspaper Valor Econômico.

    But the decision to give Petrobras operational control is shortsighted and risky and could delay Brazil’s ability to use the oil to help transform the country, said Christopher Garman, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy in New York.

    “What if we have a technological breakthrough in renewable energy, and five to eight years from now the price of oil is not what it is today?” Mr. Garman said. “Is Brazil going to maximize investments now or keep the oil in the ground for longer?”

    Lost in the debate, Mr. Gabrielli said, is the reality that the equipment needed to drill the new fields is in short supply. Petrobras executives are trying to motivate suppliers around the world to develop equipment.

    Through 2017, Petrobras will need 40 oil rigs capable of drilling deep enough to reach the new fields — more than half the total number of such rigs that exist in the world today, Mr. Gabrielli said. The company is requiring that 28 of them be built in Brazil.

    Mr. Gabrielli said the company was keeping its international expansion spending at $16 billion, so that it could focus on developing deepwater fields at home.

    “The question is not whether to speed up or not to speed up,” Mr. Gabrielli said. “We are at the limits of the world capacity for the industry.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/18/world/americas/18brazil.html?em

    Note: A version of this article appeared in print on August 18, 2009, on page A1 of the New York edition.

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    #75     Aug 18, 2009
  6. .

    August 18, 2009

    Ricardo C. Amaral: I just found today the enclosed article on the web talking about my article regarding the “Renationalization of Petrobras.”

    I know that a lot people read my article in Brazil, since I sent a copy of that article to all members of Congress in Brazil, and also to many members of president Lula’s cabinet.

    Anyway, I wonder if when Mr. Greenstein said “that most nationalized oil companies tend to recede into some form of dingy, lumbering Communist monopoly no longer stimulated by market forces” – If he had in mind Aramco in Saudi Arabia.


    *****


    “Will Brazil Really Nationalize Oil?”
    By Irwin Greenstein
    August 31, 2008
    Seeking Alpha

    … The movement to nationalize Brazilian oil may be more widespread than most investors think - or would allow themselves to believe.

    Columnist Ricardo C. Amaral wrote a forceful argument in favor of nationalization in the July 30th issue of Brazzil.

    “It is imperative that the Brazilian government follow a major global trend and start renationalizing as soon as possible the Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras),” he wrote.

    He contends that the money from Brazilian oil should be channeled into a national Sovereign Wealth Fund - the massive state-owned arms of central banks chartered to invest their reserves.

    … While Mr. Amaral’s utopian vision looks good on paper, most nationalized oil companies tend to recede into some form of dingy, lumbering Communist monopoly no longer stimulated by market forces. The bottom line: higher oil prices.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/93347-will-brazil-really-nationalize-oil

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    #76     Aug 18, 2009
  7. .


    August 24, 2009

    SouthAmerica: Article about Lula's new law of the Petroleum in Brazil.


    *****


    23/08/2009

    Após pré-sal, Vale é "alvo" de ação de Lula

    KENNEDY ALENCAR
    Colunista da Folha Online

    Ao anunciar a sua proposta de nova Lei do Petróleo no final do mês, o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva oficializará uma inflexão no papel do Estado brasileiro: o governo passará a ter maior ação na economia.

    Nos seis anos e oito meses de governo, Lula aumentou a influência do Palácio do Planalto sobre a Petrobras. Concluída a proposta de novo marco regulatório para o petróleo, Lula deverá aumentar a pressão sobre a Companhia Vale do Rio Doce.

    A Petrobras é uma estatal de capital misto na qual o governo tem a maioria das ações com direito a voto. O governo indica o seu presidente. No entanto, do capital total, 60% estão em mãos privadas.

    A Vale, a maior empresa brasileira depois da Petrobras, é uma companhia de capital misto também, mas um pouco diferente. O governo não interfere diretamente na gestão da Vale como faz na Petrobras, mas tem feito pressões para influenciar os rumos da administração da empresa.

    Do capital com direito a voto, a Valepar tem 53% das ações da Vale. Na Valepar, um consórcio de fundos de pensão detém 49% das ações. O BNDESPar tem 11,5%. O Bradesco, 21%. E o Mitsui, 18%.

    Ou seja, o Bradesco comanda a empresa por meio de um acordo de acionistas. O banco indicou Roger Agnelli para presidir a Vale. Mas uma eventual aliança entre a Previ e o BNDESpar, que é o braço do BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social), para participar de empresas, poderia indicar um novo presidente. O governo tem enorme influência sobre os fundos de pensão das estatais.

    Nos bastidores, o governo Lula ameaçou interferir no comando administrativo da Vale a fim de levar a empresa a fazer investimentos considerados estratégicos pelo Planalto --sobretudo na área de siderurgia. Lula mandou um recado ao Bradesco. Insatisfeito com a ação da Vale durante a fase mais aguda da crise global, o presidente deseja que a companhia ouça mais o governo.

    Agnelli e o Bradesco não gostam da revelação pública da pressão de Lula, mas ela existe e tem sido sentida pelo executivo e pelo banco. Em conversa reservada recentemente, Agnelli procurou selar a paz com Lula, sendo bastante cordato ao usar as palavras a fim de explicar ao presidente decisões da empresa.

    Lula considera que a Vale "amarelou" no começo da crise, cortando investimentos e demitindo trabalhadores numa hora em que o governo, que sempre atendera aos pedidos da empresa, insistia na manutenção de expectativas positivas. A Vale frustrou parte desse plano, levando outras empresas a adotar o mesmo caminho, dizem auxiliares do presidente.

    Na visão do governo, a Vale e os bancos privados erraram. A lucratividade do Banco do Brasil, a diminuição do desemprego e o aumento da renda evidenciariam um pessimismo desnecessário do setor privado brasileiro.

    Ora, se as empresas gostam de recorrer ao Estado para tomar recursos públicos ou se aliar a fundos de pensão que sofrem influência do governo, deveriam tratar como normal algum nível de intervenção estatal. Pegar dinheiro público e tratar como se fosse privado é fácil. É capitalismo sem risco.

    Nesse sentido, Lula está certo ao pressionar a Vale e ao recuperar a influência política sobre as ações estratégicas da Petrobras. O presidente avalia que as ações dos governos na crise global reforçaram seus argumentos. E ele pegou gosto pela coisa.

    As grandes empresas privadas que têm o governo como sócio serão mais pressionadas por Lula daqui em diante.

    http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/colunas/brasiliaonline/ult2307u613664.shtml

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    #77     Aug 24, 2009
  8. .

    August 5, 2010

    SouthAmerica: I mentioned a number of times on this forum that every time my articles are published I send a copy of the article to every senator, and deputado federal (Congressmen) in Brazil; including to my friend a former president of Brazil and the current president of the Senate - Senator Jose Sarney. And I also send a copy to various members of President Lula's cabinet.

    You can bet some of them have been reading my articles and they have been following up with real action that will have an important impact in the Brazilian economy for years to come.


    *********


    “Brazil's Lula signs law creating new oil company”
    Reuters - Mon Aug 2, 2010

    BRASILIA Aug 2 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a law on Monday creating a state company that will manage the development of the country's vast new oil reserves, an official in his office said.

    It is one of four oil bills proposed by the government to tighten control over some of the world's biggest recent oil finds and ensure their proceeds flow to the state to help pay for infrastructure, education and poverty-reduction programs.

    Two other bills are stuck in Congress and won't be voted on until after the Oct. 3 presidential election, raising investor uncertainty over the entire oil reform [ID:nN08149614].

    Lula, who leaves office when his second term ends January 1, has celebrated the massive oil discovery as a ticket to developed-nation status.

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    #78     Aug 5, 2010
  9. .

    August 5, 2010

    SouthAmerica: In the last 2 years we had a lot of new members that started participating on the discussions on the ET forums, and most of these members would not know which article I was talking about on the above posting. This article was published on Brazzil magazine and also on RGE Monitor on July 2008.


    ***


    Why Brazilians Should Demand the Renationalization of Petrobras
    Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
    Brazzil Magazine
    Tuesday, 08 July 2008

    It is imperative that the Brazilian government follows a major global trend and start renationalizing as soon as possible the Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras). Before I describe a plan of action for economic development of the Brazilian economy, I hope the reader understands one major trend that has been in place for a number of years.

    You can read the entire article at:
    http://www.brazzil.com/articles/194...emand-the-renationalization-of-petrobras.html

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    #79     Aug 5, 2010