The Coming Oil Crisis

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by capmac, Apr 19, 2006.

  1. capmac


    How many of you are old enough to have been working in 1973? If so, you would've had the kind of economic experience I did at that time. But if you were in school or missed the period of the oil crisis, get ready because those times could return with a vengeance.

    I left the Marine Corps in 1974 and got my first (and only) real job with the Xerox Corporation. The U.S. economy was in terrible shape at that time. From 1973 to 1974, the U.S. was in the midst of an energy crisis, and inflation was in the double digits. Stagflation, a new word, had been introduced -- there was high inflation, but the economy wasn't growing.

    Because of the energy crisis, I had not one but two cars. One was a Corvette, and one was a Karmann Ghia convertible, made by Volkswagen. I filled up my Corvette with gas on even-numbered calendar days and the other car on odd-numbered days. Also, the speed limit was cut from 65 to 55 mph to reduce gasoline consumption, which meant I was often pulled over for speeding.

    Worst of all, as a brand new Xerox salesman just learning to sell, I found myself struggling to save Xerox copiers, rather than sell Xerox copiers. That's because back then, Xerox only rented copiers. As the economy worsened, one of the first items businesses got rid of was their Xerox copier. Each cancellation meant I had to sell two copiers -- one to cover the loss of the cancelled machine and another copier to earn enough money to put gas in my cars and food on the table. In some months, I was losing more machines than I was selling -- and was nearly fired several times.
  2. Excellent article. Everyone should click this link and read up.
  3. eeehhhh???? it has been stated time and time again....we "know" we have enough oil to last for the next 40-50 yrs...thats not including pulling oil from tar sands (inefficient) such as located in Canada...we have more oil in inventory now than we had back in the late 90s when oil was sub-$20...the real reason oil is so expensive pretty much b/c society has been willing to pay for it...I know for a fact this is not a supply shock like the fella would like to claim...we have plenty...its a "demand shock" which basically means the public is still willing to pay $3 bucks a gallon for gas to drive to an overpriced sporting event or the movies or to Aunt Bea's on the other side of the state. Between now and 40 yrs from now...most of us will be dead so it won't matter...but anyway...I'm fairly sure alternative energy sources will have been perfected for usage and distribution. The only reason we are not blowing full-speed ahead into a hydrogen economy is b/c the oil companies continue to buy up any relevant patents concerning hydrogen production and assimilated products, thus limiting hydrogen exposure to the public.
  4. Chagi


    I seem to recall that energy efficiency has greatly increased over the years, specifically there is some form of (energy consumed/unit of GDP) relationship.

    I think that people should be a lot more concerned about the housing bubble than rising energy prices, because the former is (in my opinion) a greater factor in driving consumer spending (e.g. demand for new homes, renovations, toys, absorption of credit card debt, etc.).
  5. Pekelo


    That's relaxing news. So you think that for 39 years we will be just fine and the shit will hit the fan only in the 40th year???

    Most people don't get that it is meaningless to talk about oil production without CONSUMPTION. Thus if production increases 3% a year but consumption increases 5% a year, we have a problem. Technically that is peakoil already. China and India don't look like slowing down anytime soon. Saudi Arabia does....

    And oil is still too cheap. Just wait a few years and you will be crying back those $70 a barrel prices...
  6. That 'oil efficiency' stat is bullshit to the nth degree, (unfortunately you have seen it elsewhere - I don't mean to pick on you). We are more 'efficient per GDP' because we shipped all our energy-intense pieces to China. Note China has been getting increasingly LESS efficient. They are us, and we are them. We're all going down together.
  7. The problem today is that oil companies are too short-sighted, the environmentalists too far-sighted, and politicians only concerned with being elected.

    Perhaps the most important thing said and the only way a solution will come about is if this dynamic changes.
  8. capmac


    Oil hits record $74 on Iran, US gasoline stocks

    Wed Apr 19, 2006 3:50pm ET

    By Simon Webb

    LONDON (Reuters) - Oil hit a record $74 a barrel Wednesday on fears Iran's intensifying dispute with the West may hit oil supplies and after U.S. gasoline stocks dropped.

    London's Brent crude settled $1.22 higher at $73.73 a barrel after peaking at a record $74.

    U.S. gasoline stocks slumped more than 5 million barrels last week, government data released Wednesday showed. It was a larger fall than analysts polled by Reuters expected, and supplies are now nearly 5 percent below last year's level.

    "The EIA (inventory) data are bullish in light of expectations," said Kyle Cooper, analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. "There is nothing in this report that can put a damper on the current rally."

    Gasoline prices have soared faster than crude since the start of April as inventories dwindle, while refiners run down stocks ahead of changes to more environmentally-friendly fuels in May.

    Higher interest rates and higher oil will eliminate scum!
  10. Banjo


    Bingo, that is the trap, we all make it or not.
    #10     Apr 19, 2006