The only reason China has a economy is because of all the trinkets they sell to America. If America stops buying China will be decimated. Like stomping on a ant hill. John
Credit growth is contracting marginally. The country has to keep expanding credit or else we are in trouble. We should know more this fall. It would be nice if the rest of the world (asia) did its part and started to encourage domestic demand. Unfortunately they arent going to start until the US consumer is completely spent up. I dont think lower interest rates are going to jump start the economy. They were never restrictive to begin with.
great analogy. who's on the wheel? there doesn't seem to a be an organized group with any significant influence that prioritizes the long term success of the whole. many people discount future people, even their own progeny
I've long been wondering about how the national debt problem would be resolved eventually, any books on this issue? If the debt level is freezed, it would depreciated by almost half in 20 years assuming a 3% inflation rate. If the inflation is too high, US Dollar could lose its reserve currency status which is disastrous to US economy.
Hey, stuff happens. I'm re-reading a book called "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson and Mogg. It doesn't go too much into market action, but clearly and historically explains how, without undisputed superior brute force, you have no markets. The point/forecast of the book is that the role of the U.S. in the 21st Century will largely be the one of the world's policeman. Perhaps other central banks buy dollars because they want to (but I do think the Saudis buy them because they have to). At some point, maybe all central banks will be strongly encouraged to buy them, even if they don't want to. My gut feeling (maybe just hope), is that the 21 century will be peaceful. If that is accomplished, but the dollar looks like it should go to zero, foreign countries should have to pay us for our ridiculous lifestyle. And that's a real cheap deal for them. BTW, my favorite uncle recently passed. He was a real man. Volunteered for the 101 Airborne "Screaming Eagles". Was at Normandy and Battle of the Bulge, but always refused to talk about any of it. Conversely, I had a conversation recently with a H1B UNIX engineer from India, (real bright guy - 40 years old). This guy is probably making over 140K in the U.S. But he never heard of the D-Day invasion. Something is not right. Sorry if I have offended anyone with anything that I have said i this meandering post.
Deflation, once established cant be reversed by more liquidity of monies. Japan had interest rates of ZERO for years, that was not a fix, still they suffer ! Helicopter Ben, wont stop deflation, by printing more monies. Deflation is the velocity of money, not the amount of monies in an economy. Consumer savings is a start....
So your Grandma is the ideal portrait of the Baby Boomers? Kidna of a stretch don't you think? Either way, you have to compare the generations over time. You don't change a generation's system of beliefs overnight.
an idea, how about better allocating your tax $? just an example, yr Defense budget, according to this interesting report: Reposturing the force, US Overseas Presence in the 21st Century http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/npapers/np26/NP26.pdf#search="counterleverage definition" chap 3 intro, is in excess of $400bio... and that doesn't include CIA and other similar sundry costs... i mean, anecdotal evidence doesn't exactly bear out the following statement from the navy paper's same page, last para: "these are national commitments, solemnly made, and the sight of US armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and timezone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for 60 years." u guys aint getting value for money mesays but s.o. sure is!
Look what happened for the last 20 years, not that we have any other reference period, bull market after bull market. The problem this time are high energy&ressource costs, if they persist, it'll take more than interest rates.
What percentage did Real Estate carry back in 2001? I would imagine that, in aggregate, it was always more then the stock market.