Careful, if someone told you what you wrote, you'd advise them to take a break. I don't mind going long, but tighten up the criteria, and keep the leash short.
No, I know. Trust me. Tight stops only from here on in. I will not go through the repeated wash-rinse cycle that so many did last April-May. No way.
Solar power, if they can bring the cost and size of storage down, could threaten oil. There are whole communities going up using both. the cost of building and recovery have significantly dropped. If they can get it to mass production, their could be a wide adoption of the technology over the next few years, especially if oil stays at these prices or higher. Find me an oil bear and I'll show you a unicorn. Oil and commodity crash take the market down like in 2006 not subprime. Just a thought.
asking for folks bearish on oil this site? shooting blind, deaf or dead fish in a empty barrell is much, much easier. Christ finding somebody who like commodities in general is the question you should ask. The fed drops the bias towards tightening and gold goes higher, as does crude? Somebody answer that.
Lower rates should spur more borrowing, which in turn should accelerate the economy, raising demand for oil. More money means the possibility of accelerating inflation, hence higher gold (inflation hedge). The Fed is in a pickle. Inflation has shown signs of topping, but not clearly. The next few months should be a better indication. While at the same time, there maybe some economic issues that could derail the economy. So what do they do? Save the economy or try and fight off inflation? The answer will be easier once they know whether the inflation trend has turned down. Hopefully there is no major economic destroying event in the meantime.
Chooo!! Chooo!!! I think I can, I think I can. The market is showing some resilience and new leadership is slowly taking hold. I spent a lot of time this weekend pouring over charts and found that the place to be is long. There was a sudden surge of setups that crept up over the last four days. The only problem, most are kind of sloppy, but if you take out that one week disaster, the bases start to look much nicer. My long list went from none to a ton. I did have to do some work to weed out the few that were able to escape the markets beat down, and so far they have performed great. Again, I have to reiterate my skepticism, but at this point I have dipped back into the long side today, and will continue to do so until signs of trouble emerge. I would have thought that by now some signs would have emerged. But outside of this morning's sell off, on low volume, which is great, the market itself has acted quite perfectly. And the recovery off the lows today came on a pick up on volume and the many new potential leaders that are on my list really picked up steam just before the market really perked up and exploded as the NASDAQ went positive. With a quiet period ahead, we may be in for a nice little rally over the next few weeks with some powerful moves. I don't expect much more, but considering no one else does, maybe the market surprises us. RANDOM MUSING: I still hold my bull trap theory. Now that we got a correction of around 8%, the good move off the lows will serve to bring in the money that was waiting for the correction. The money that did not leave the market during the market, will stay put. The skeptical money will creep in as the market moves higher unabated (if that's the markets plan), and just when things start to look rosy, watch out. But for now, play it long, just look out for the subtle sell signals, I wouldn't ignore them. But they are hard to recognize, since you will be looking for the signals that reaffirm your bullish view.
calibertrader you're a joke. one minute you're a bear the next a bull. watch and learn how the market humbles all the smart asses like you. the stars all lining up against this market then bamm it ends. i think you went to cramers flip flop school
Why would you say that. If you're a swing trader, you have to change with the market. Right now it's the long side that's working. What am I supposed to do, go short and pray that they stop running the market? Would you tell a day trader they are a joke if they are long the morning and short the afternoon? You go with the ebbs and flows of the market, and I go with the ebbs and flows of my setups. If the market is in an uptrend and I have the setups, I can't be bearish and go long. I also did say in my last few posts that even though I believe the market was ready to take swoon, it was not time to get short. So I'm not flip flopping. All along I believed that they would develop a rally. The best part is this could be the one that's quick, but many of the former leadership go into climactic runs, which can be huge. Let me guess, you're short and pissed that you're losing money.
Oh yeh, look at the poll at the top. At one point everyone was more bullish then bearish and the market kept dropping. Now look how skewed it is to the bearish side. The market has a way of running in the shorts just before that 1000 point drop you spoke about. Chanster, I'm still on your side, just for the next week or two, maybe longer, why not take advantage of a possible opportunity. And I'm only long half of what I normally would take. Look at a chart of the nasday at the end of 1991. A similar sudden selloff occured and then the market turned a few weeks later and literally went up every day for 4 weeks and topped about another 4 weeks later. Then it cratered. I ran a screen to see if there were big winners and I found quite a few that ran up 20% or more in those 4 weeks.
The market is tough. I've been convinced for a while that we were going to tumble further then the low set on March 14th, but the market followed through and confirmed the rally on March 21st. Since I won't argue or trade against the market, anymore at least, I had no choice but to sit in cash or nibble on some longs. I didn't want to sit on all cash, since the markets will do what they want, so I chose to nibble just in case my bearish assumptions were wrong. So far it has worked in my favor, but now not sure for how much longer. The markets haven't acted badly since the follow through, up to today, where we got our first distribution day. Now it might be just jitters ahead of big economic reports tomorrow (anyone's guess at this point what the market wants out of them) or the weekend (Iran is out of it's mind and cornering itself to a point it may not be able to get out of). I did have some breakouts today I did not take because volume was suspiciously low. What to do? I'm going to watch the tomorrow very closely, if the action looks bad, I will most likely move back to cash and pull up my short list (which by the way has grown in the last two days). I will probably wait for next week to initiate any shorts as I don't want to be run in by an early rally next week if there are no major problems in the Middle East or elsewhere for that matter (rally may not happen, but want to remain cautious). I know this makes me look like a flip flopper, but I'm a swing trader and need to adjust weekly, sometimes daily (which I hate, but have no choice), until I can see the true trend. How do I know it's a true trend? Breakouts/breakdowns hold their pivot points and continue to follow through before their first major pullback. So far, that statement holds true on the bull side. The problem, the number of leaders (breakouts) is still scarce. All I can advise at this point, keep doing the homework. When markets have no clear trend, it's better to sit in cash or do as much work as possible so you're not caught with your pants down. Once a trend is developed and you're on the right side, you can take a breathe or two, but never for too long. GOOD LUCK and buy a lot of Excedrin tension headache pills if you're trading. Random Musing: If Iran is truly cornering itself with a confrontation with the West, the markets will sell off as they usually do leading up to the boiling point. But, historically, when these confrontations come to a head (i.e. War), US markets start major rallies and not continue the sell-off leading up to the solution (if you want to call war that).