I agree. I believe the beginning 10-20% was the subprimes. Next is Alt-A which I just posted a link to a CNN report on...this is where the big boys get stung. http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/19/news/economy/next_subprime/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote Now those numbers are scary and the fear alone could trigger a rash of stagnation and lack of buying/rush to sell at lower prices. We'll have to wait and see, but I think these Alt-A loans are going to do real damage.
Look at the risk/reward profile now. Look at the run the indices have had since July of last year. Consider that earnings are slowing. Add in the housing woes (not just mortgage woes, but housing woes, which relate to everything appliance sales to equity/liquidity). I think the risk/reward profile has changed substantially and that the media headlines are catching up to this change. But I am an admitted bear right now, mostly sidelined, getting a certain fixed return on my money that while not thrilling me, at least is letting me sleep more easily. I do not think the media is over-reporting the bad in terms of qualitative reporting.
Even though the media wants to get ahead of the story and predict the worst, they seem to be under orders to try and calm the public at the same time. To me, it smells fishy. The other reason I am so bearish at this point, I have more setups looking like dead cat bounces then good intermediate longs. Typically when this occurs on my screens, there is more room to the downside.
Yes, it is. Let's get the indexes to rally to the 50DMA over the next week or two and then the short raid can begin.
I'm still puzzled why anyone would TRADE off of volume. My clearing firm only PAYS ME based on PRICE! You still don't get it. SPX now 40 handles off the lows, and you are still LOOKING for things to be "negative" about. Meanwhile, you have missed a HUGE move! Amazing.
Go back and look at the volume after the FEB 27th drop, the markets rallied and everyone thought the markets were back on there way to new highs because everything was all fine and good again. If you can look back and see the declining volume you would have known that the market rally was just a head fake. Look at the volume again today, nice rallies across the board yet volume is anemic.
Couldn't agree more -- I believe 1 month from now we are significantly higher... after that I don't know.