The Coming Bear Trap

Discussion in 'Trading' started by calibertrader, Mar 19, 2007.

Bull or Bear?

Poll closed Mar 26, 2007.
  1. Bull

    20 vote(s)
    23.3%
  2. Neutral

    35 vote(s)
    40.7%
  3. Bear

    31 vote(s)
    36.0%
  1. Too much merchandise makes the cheap, cheaper!!!!
     
    #111     Apr 4, 2007
  2. Oh yeah, baby.

    All these bullish calls from Wall Street. Abby Cohen is on fiyah!!!

    (Going to cash - the China growth story is so old it's becoming annoying. Maybe the Chinese can sell their exports to Bangladesh when the American economy grinds down)
     
    #112     Apr 4, 2007
  3. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Just thought we need an update here?


     
    #113     Apr 5, 2007
  4. Bearish opinion stands. The market is finishing up this last leg up over the 50dma. Volume has dramatically decreased over the last 3 days as the market pierced through the 50dma. It looks like earnings will get the sellers going again in the next two weeks.
     
    #114     Apr 5, 2007
  5. I have changed my opinion.

    The U.S. markets will run higher at year end.

    We have to all realize that this rally may feel good, but

    1) It will be nominal, not real

    2) It will underperform foreign markets

    The dollar is crashing, and our government doesn't care.

    Inflation is much higher than officially stated, and our government doesn't care.

    The lower dollar is good for exports and precious metals.

    Own highly inflationary assets to be a winner.

    Predicting where real inflation will rear its ugly head will separate winners and losers who are playing the U.S. equity markets.
     
    #115     Apr 5, 2007
  6. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Maybe. I certainly wouldn't be surprised by a pullback, but do you think it will be severe one that will test March lows? Two other things to consider:

    1) Volume was also very weak during the mild pullback last week. Sellers have shown even less conviction than buyers.

    2) S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have all moved into the gap formed on Feb. 27. If you're a bear, this is definitely something you didn't want to see.

    Again, though, I wouldn't be surprised by more back-and-forth rangebound trading.

     
    #116     Apr 5, 2007
  7. Volume dry up could be seller exhaustion.
     
    #117     Apr 5, 2007
  8. 1) Agreed, that's why I was willing to get long after the confirmation for a bit.

    2) Filling the gap on lighter volume convinces me even more that this was nothing more then a bull trap. The bears are trying to trap as many people as possible.

    3) My main indicator for being bearish is that most 52 week breakouts have reversed back into their bases. This is very unusual at the beginning of a new bull.


    As for the severity of the correction, I couldn't even guess at that. Considering we were over 7% down on the first leg, I would guess that we will see 10% plus before it's all over.
     
    #118     Apr 5, 2007
  9. Fractal

    Fractal

    LOL
     
    #119     May 2, 2007
  10. I'm laughing with you as I got long last week.
     
    #120     May 3, 2007