The Cockroach Theory

Discussion in 'Trading' started by THE-BEAKER, Aug 1, 2007.

  1. this needs to be applied in the current subprime debacle.

    that is- where there is one - there is more.

    so far over the last few months all the pundits , banks and so called experts including the fed have got this so wrong.

    they all said it would not spread and it was contained.

    well obviously not.

    i didnt think so either and made my case a few times on this site along with others.

    i dont think we have seen the big blow out trade on this either.

    it just seems whenever we think its calmed down and thats the end another couple of companies and hedge funds reveal substantial exposure.

    now this is not a forecast of doom and gloom but the facts and reality of this situation dictate that this mess is systemic to a lot of other companies and markets.

    the sheer scale of this could be huge still.

    im betting on more bad news and revelations from within funds that they have massive exposure to subprime, alt a , call it what you want but pretty much crap.