In the last 200 times it has hapened what is the percentage of times your records show its occurrence. I guess I know the answer, but I will wait for your reply.
I don't have exact stats but I would say more than 75%. It is a correlation instrument. TF. It moves more than any of the other 3 major index futures and usually leads the move. Just put the 4 majors on 1 chart (line form, starting @ 9:30AM EST) and you'll see that TF is leading, most of the time. Up or down. Same result. But like I wrote in the previous post, I will ignore it for now but keep a spreadsheet to get more accurate stats. Gabe
Unless you have backtested something and have the "exact stats" how will you trust that with your money in real time. So forget about that correlation and focus on what the instrument you are watching is doing in front of your eyes. Trends like this don't come everyday, so be certain to have something in your plan not to waste them. My advice, if you are going to follow Dbs, approach is that you stick to what he defined in the Straight line Thread, it is simple and straightforward. Make questions, and while you understand the basics, forget about the rest. There will be a time for the rest. You can ignore this, but personally I would not suggest it. Take care.
Over the next little while I will gather the stats. I should have done it a long time ago. Incidentally, I remembered that back in 2009 I bought Al Brooks' book and he talks about micro trends. He was difficult to read but this book is the best from an informational point of view. I am not ignoring anything unless I find the advice useless by weighing and analyzing it so thank you. The chart below is an example. It is not 100% accurate b/c everyday the 4 instruments must start from a common point. The 1st day to the left is always accurate. Gabe
1st week of trading NQ ended. For now I like it more than CL but I am not dropping CL. Charts with different formats are attached. Please let me know which one is the most beneficial to most. (maybe a combination) Gabe
Sometimes I like to day dream . Todays dream is a modest one. I was wondering how realistic is it to make 300$/day trading the NQ. My assumptions are that one would have 2 trades per day. Each trade will have 3 contracts. (Or 3 trades with 2 contracts) Based on the above, a 2.5 point profit per contract will give you the daily profit in the dream. NQ has a daily range of about 32 points per day on average and a median range of 29 points per day, so catching a minimum move of 2.5 points represents less than 10% of the daily range Based on the past 2 years, NQ has a 90% probability of having at least a 17 point range per day. There are between 4-7 swings of more than 5 points per day. (sometimes more) I think that the dream could be turned into reality. Gabe
Hi Gabe, I was reading an older thread it's about 18 pages long, I think you might get some helpful ideas out of it: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=103700 Be careful about expectations on what you can make in the market, when you focus on the money ($300.00 or whatever amount) per day, what happens when you don't hit that target. I think over time it can create some negative issues. Focus on following your plan to the best of your ability, journaling on what happened during the day, thoughts, emotions, ideas etc... Here is a quote from the earlier mentioned thread: "I take what the market gives me. Lately I've been setting a max daily loss limit but not a target. I feel if I'm "one' with the market on a particular day I should not quit unless otherwise."
We just need to be patient and take what the market gives us, if we have a dollar amount even though it is very realistic it could do serious damage to our confidence if we don't reach it. My main goal is to follow my trading plan without exceptions and I know if i do in the long term it will be very profitable.
Gabe, you need some tough love. Your dream is extremely dangerous. This is the dream every aspiring trader has at some point and more than 95% of them fail. This dream has already lured you in; don't allow it to destroy you completely. Develop a plan, test the plan, trade the plan in sim, and once you do that successfully, then every day take whatever the market offers according to your plan.