"The China Price" - The best business article I have seen in years.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by SouthAmerica, May 31, 2005.

  1. Well, by 2025 I hope to have sold off my china stake for something more lucrative. And, by the way, have you looked at our statistics on similar issues? Makes China's pale by comparison - these people expect nothing; our population demands and can vote for it!

    Statements such as - shares have risen 50% with ONLY a 9% annualized GDP growth are ridiculous - back in the latter half of the '90's, the DOW went from 4000 to 12000 - a 300% increase - with US GDP growth at about 4-5% per annum. While China certainly has its share of shady companies, bad loans, and government fooling around, and you should expect significant volatility, in my mind you bear significantly more risk by NOT investing in Chinese instruments than investing in them.

    I think you should throw that rag away, or at least view writing from that correspondent with a critical eye.
     
    #81     Apr 12, 2006
  2. .

    October 15, 2006

    SouthAmerica: IBM is confirming one step at the time what I have been saying on my articles about IBM, outsourcing, and so on….

    IBM used to be the “symbol of United States technological advance” to the world.

    Today IBM is a symbol of United States decline and the ascendancy of China in world affairs.

    IBM is saying: bye, bye USA (the US represents yesterday) and is moving into the future – into India and China.

    The actions taken by IBM since June 2006 speak volumes and are very clear, and they have signaled to the world that the USA represents the past and that India and China represents the future from the point of view of IBM. IBM’s real actions speak louder than 1,000 words.

    Quoting from above article in June 2006: “Mr. Palmisano and other top executives will meet here with investment analysts and local customers to showcase IBM's global integration capabilities in a briefing customarily held in New York. During the week, the company will lead the 50 analysts on a tour of its Indian operations.”

    It did not take long for IBM to move another major piece of itself to Asia this time to China.



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    “IBM dumps New York State for China”

    Procurement takes the long trek east
    By INQUIRER staff:
    The Enquirer – UK
    Thursday 12 October 2006


    BIG BLUE said it's shifting its global procurement office from Somers in New York state, to Shenzhen.

    This, it is said, is the first time the HQ of an IBM corporate wide unit has moved outside the US. It hailed this as the invention of a new model to a "globally integrated enterprise".

    It has shifted John Paterson, head of the division, to Shenzhen too. He said IBM has collaborative relationships with 3,000 suppliers in Asia, 30 per cent of the $40 billion it spends on procurement.

    IBM did not say how many of Paterson's staff were making the long trek east. In the old days, IBM used to stand for I've Been Moved.



    ***************



    “IBM Moves Global Procurement To China”
    BY: Robert Malone
    Forbes – October 13, 2006


    IBM is moving its global procurement headquarters to Shenzhen, China. It will be the first time the headquarters of a corporate-wide IBM division has been moved outside the U.S.

    The company's chief procurement officer, John Paterson, will move from Somers, N.Y., to Shenzhen. IBM already has 1,850 employees in the area and manufactures there for the Asian/Pacific market products and systems including servers, retail store systems, storage devices and computer printers. The company originally manufactured PCs there but sold off that business to a Chinese-owned firm.

    "In a multinational model, many functions of corporations were replicated around the world--but each addressing only its local market. In a globally integrated enterprise, for the first time, a company's worldwide capability can be located wherever in the world it makes the most sense," says Paterson.

    Shenzhen is not an arbitrary selection; it is at the center of one of the three most active Chinese trading centers and part of Asia's ever-more-powerful emerging markets. Shenzhen is the third-largest port in China and the fourth-largest port in the world.

    "We established our Shenzhen center over ten years ago and have had procurement people in China for 50 years," Paterson says. "The Shenzhen area has many electronic hardware suppliers that we will continue to use."

    This move emphasizes a series of corporate objectives: to move to the place in the world where procurement makes the most sense, as Paterson has said; to modify IBM's own supply base; and to expand the company's internal procurement skills and develop executives for global roles.

    The move will involve both IBM's hardware and software businesses. By emphasizing software and services skills, it will make possible the development of new partners and suppliers. IBM, as a company, spends $45 billion a year with external suppliers. More than half its business is in services to its clients.

    "Part of our focus is to try to develop a supply base in China and other parts of Asia that can globally support our services business," says Paterson.

    IBM has 3,000 suppliers across Asia. It has procurement professionals in 60 countries and 400 cities worldwide, and the company is attempting to gain competitive advantages by locating those in charge of procurement as close to their clients and suppliers as possible. Their global and integrative skills are to be complemented by continued interest in deep local relationships.

    IBM has, over the past few years, made it clear that the supply chain, including the procurement process, is a core focus of its business. It is a major means by which the company can--through end-to-end execution and productivity optimization--balance cost savings with customer or client satisfaction. This strategy has allowed IBM to significantly decrease logistics costs, totaling some 20% savings from 1996 through 2003, despite a significant increase in the volume of goods being transported. The move to Shenzhen will clearly play a significant role in the continuing success of this strategy.


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    #82     Oct 15, 2006
  3. Do you think at all besides satisfying your anti-American bias? Is that what gets you off and makes you happy? "I must destory evil America, it's sooo evil I have to say bad bad things, I will look for anything that supports my views and totally disregard anything that disconfirms it, yeeeaaaah, I'm smart".

    BTW, since you hate America so much can you tell me what other country has been so good to the world? Since America is so evil it must be very easy to give me examples and you must have a long list, right?

    No one is saying that China and India aren't the future. But why do you insist that the future is only those two countries? Why can't it be comprised of multiple winners? Globalization brings everyone closer and allows more and more specialization.

    So IBM is moving part of their company to China, they are improving their company in the process and making it more competitive. Why is that an indication the US is going down?

    What it really is (for any other idiots out there that are clueless) is that the world is changing, it's globalization dumbass.

    I like how you ignore companies like Google that have the same market cap as IBM and really represents the next generation of innovative of American businesses. Oh well, you just wanna be in your little hole and bring misery to the world like the little complainer you are. Sad.
     
    #83     Oct 15, 2006
  4. Hello 101,

    You will need to explain your premise that the US economy is strong.
    From where I am sitting it is simply a debt lead spending boom.

    Basically there are two schools of thought.
    One the one hand there are those who believe that the oil backed dollar can be printed for ever with no thought given to the debt that it creates.

    Then there is the other group who believe that the first group harbours unhealthy thoughts and that oil should be traded in roubles, euros or better still a basket of currencies.

    This would leave the US and its debt in an interesting position and would require military intervention even although history has shown that crude application of military force produces messy outcomes at best.
    More often than not it destroys the hand that applys it.

    And so it is up to you to decide which train of thought suits you the best and wraps you with the most comfort.

    But be very wary of the third group.
    These are the Bankers who will go where ever the best profits lie.
     
    #84     Oct 15, 2006
  5. It's very simple, US corporations are very profitable, have lots of cash, and unemployment is relatively low. Soft assets are a huge part of the economy that are not adequately captured as I said before.

    But there is bone head Bush spending like crazy, yes that is a problem but with the spending side. He'll be gone in a few years.

    People used to say the same thing after WWII about the national debt and all the spending it did during the war and after the war to reconstruct Europe. It'll burden the US forever.

    That's true if the economy is static and the country has no innovation. I think the country that invented the LCD monitor you're looking at, the internet you're using, and the Operating system loaded into the PC that were all invented in the US could hardly be called non-innovative. Innovation creates value, just look at the 90's where the size of the US economy exploded and the deficit shrank.

    BTW, what economy would you consider strong? Has low unemployment and diviersified industries that innovate? Since strong and weak are relative terms.
     
    #85     Oct 15, 2006
  6. As I said, you must believe whatever makes you comfortable and learn live with the outcome.

    Careful with the analogies.
    Hindus, Mayans and Babylonians are seperately credited with the invention of the zero, without which the operating system of my british invented computor would fail to work.

    The devil lies in the detail!
     
    #86     Oct 15, 2006
  7. As the recent winner of the nobel prize admitted....in globalization those that gain must provide a means for those who lose...or else globalization will be resented by many many people.

    I am not right or left or in between...am not political...etc...

    And I love the capitalistic markets and enterprise...this is how I have made and make my living...

    What I do have is a realistic view of what is happening because I have the fortune of having several houses in different parts of the world...and I was educated as an economist specializing in prices...and have been trading since 1978...

    .................................................................................................

    I have not seen any government that did not have quite a bit of corruption...where there is money..there is corruption...

    What I think one has to do today is to really rationalize... the whys of things... for ones self because it is also true that the media in each country is going to be biased to that country...

    There are lots of intelligent individuals around that can handily grasp the information that they are given....but one must be careful to not form ones opinions on biased information...because you do matter and collectively each population matters as to how they think...

    ......................................................................................

    Here is a very simple example...

    How would you react...if another country came into your country...in order to take you prized natural resource for themselves...in the meantime killing 1 of every 12 people to do so ?

    What if your country had a catastrophe...and another country comes in with strings attached such that by accepting their aid...it would require you to eliminate 30% of all the businesses in the country...and furthermore mandates that the country change its tax procedures by increasing the price of all basic items by 20% overnight ?

    What if you..yes you ...lived in a neighborhood with others...all good people....and you required by law that you could have guns but they could not ?

    What if your military ventured to another country under the guise of profiteering...and yet you condemned other countries who made similar moves under the guise of profiteering..

    You know the list goes on and on...
    ................................................................................................

    What I am saying is that what China has.... is cheap labor for manufacturing....and of course other advantages....and although they are poor...they still have this ...and the world wants it...and it is WalMarts will to make cheap labor available....etc....list goes on...

    What is true now...is that information is just as quickly available to the poorest people in the world...as they can log on to read NYT just like anybody else...

    Information is being made available to anyone who logs on anywhere in the world...thanks to the likes of Google and so on...
    The point being that if Google were not in the US...but yet made itself available in the US...people would use it like they buy Chinese products...
    ................................................................................................

    The sheer number of people in China make it attractive ...this means that if only 5 percent of them gain marketable incomes...then you bet the capitalistic international companies are going to exploit the market..
    ..............................................................................................

    What I am saying is that while being patriotic and loyal ....one must also be reminded to be objective and considerate to other peoples of the world....and remember to respect the information that has been fed to them all of their lives...which is very very different than the information that has been fed to you all of your life...

    For example...in one of the countries in Latin America...on a wonderful sunny day...there are SUVs...horses...mules...parked outside the internet cafes...where a man is thought to be more manly the more women he has...the more children he has...etc...and it would be safe to say that these children are basically illegitimate...but yet comprise 60% of the populations children...70% of the houses around the countrys capital do not have proper land titles...the citys can make their own holidays...etc...very very different....but yet when it comes to accessing the internet....everyone is on a more level playing field...

    Suppose these people discover that they can provide a service to the US market that costs 40% less than what the US is paying....and they can boost their monthly incomes by 10x doing so....and in turn can buy the BMW X5 that is now being made in the Southern US.....This is enterprise....

    It is enterprise....not war...not killing each others children...that can make the world a better place....

    Oil should be all about developing enterprise...like labor...it is just another highly desired product....
     
    #87     Oct 15, 2006
  8. dude I think it's you who has the problem with correctly separating and categorizing things. You should take your observation about feeling comfortable in your own world.

    If you're gonna go that route well you forgot the nice folks in the middle east that invented algebra, yes they all invented the computer. Oh and without electricity you wouldn't have electronic devices so I guess Ben Franklin also invented the computer. Are you an idiot?

    First I said PC, personal computer. Second how is it a British invented computer? Cuz some dude came up with a calculating machine back in the day?

    You didn't answer my question about giving me an example of another country that has a "strong" economy.
     
    #88     Oct 15, 2006
  9. The Malvinas!
     
    #89     Oct 15, 2006
  10. Sheeeeeeeeeeeit, that's a good one. Ok you got me. :)
     
    #90     Oct 15, 2006