What's wrong with this picture? <a href="http://imageshack.us"><img src="http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/11/swrongka4.gif" border="0" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us" /></a>
No it's not. How would you extrapolate this picture to formulate a investment hypothesis in Chinese real estate.
. Comanche: that was a well thought out post on Cuba, and the timing is great as we debated Cuba in the office yesterday. ************* December 22, 2006 SouthAmerica: The American capitalist model has not worked well for most countries in South America in the last 20 years. Argentina is the poster child to the world on how well the type of capitalist system prescribed by the United States works if you follow the US model. Now South American started following the Asian model of capitalism and we hope that model will produce better results. The US capitalist system has reached a new phase anyway â the milk the system to the bone phase. Today American capitalism is reaching a crisis point. The only way American companies know how to compete and make money is by laying off employees, or raiding the employees pension funds, or by eliminating all kinds of benefits including pension funds, healthcare benefits and so on. Lately, American corporations successfully managed to lobby the US federal government to pass federal laws in the United States that affect overtime pay to employees and reduce the employees' potential incomes. The leverage of the union system has been declining in the United States year after year, and the general labor force in the US is losing any type of power and leverage that they once had. The reality is: today the American capitalist system is in a race to the bottom. If China adopts a new ethanol strategy involving all these islands in the Caribbean that would be a win-win strategy not only for China but also for all the Caribbean islands that China make investments on. When China's investments help lift the economies of many of these Caribbean islands and create jobs to thousands of people on these islands, in turn they will become customers and will have money to buy all kinds of Chinese goods. It would be as if China was creating a new market to sell its goods. The more prosperity China can bring to the people of these islands the better will be for all parties involved on this deal. China can develop a nice place for the Chinese population to spend a vacation on these Caribbean islands â and China can develop tourist centers with hotels and so forth for almost nothing in places such as Haiti. And today transportation it will not be a problem for a round trip from China to the Caribbean with the Airbus airplanes capable of carrying 800 people per trip. China can move quickly on a plan regarding the Caribbean including Cuba and they can start implementing their plan as Fidel Castro still living. (But the old man can die at any time from now on.) It is no secret that today the United States has the most incompetent foreign policy since 1776 â the entire world knows that by now. Instead of having the foresight and grabbing the current opportunity regarding Cuba â The United States is doing nothing and they are hoping that when Fidel Castro dies they will be able to get pictures of people trying to leave the island in an effort to enter the United States â a real dream will come true for the US government if they are able to show on television around the world the Exodus of people trying to get out of Cuba when Fidel dies. The current US government is specialized only on the doctrine of fear and nothing else. The terrorists are coming, the Russians are coming, the boogieman is coming, the Iraqis are coming, the Iranians are coming, the North Koreans are coming â and some of them armed with nukes, and so onâ¦. Itâs Pathetic! .
Excellent and Extremely Accurate Commentary ................................................................................................ December 22, 2006 SouthAmerica: The American capitalist model has not worked well for most countries in South America in the last 20 years. Argentina is the poster child to the world on how well the type of capitalist system prescribed by the United States works if you follow the US model. Now South American started following the Asian model of capitalism and we hope that model will produce better results. The US capitalist system has reached a new phase anyway â the milk the system to the bone phase. Today American capitalism is reaching a crisis point. The only way American companies know how to compete and make money is by laying off employees, or raiding the employees pension funds, or by eliminating all kinds of benefits including pension funds, healthcare benefits and so on. Lately, American corporations successfully managed to lobby the US federal government to pass federal laws in the United States that affect overtime pay to employees and reduce the employees' potential incomes. The leverage of the union system has been declining in the United States year after year, and the general labor force in the US is losing any type of power and leverage that they once had. The reality is: today the American capitalist system is in a race to the bottom. If China adopts a new ethanol strategy involving all these islands in the Caribbean that would be a win-win strategy not only for China but also for all the Caribbean islands that China make investments on. When China's investments help lift the economies of many of these Caribbean islands and create jobs to thousands of people on these islands, in turn they will become customers and will have money to buy all kinds of Chinese goods. It would be as if China was creating a new market to sell its goods. The more prosperity China can bring to the people of these islands the better will be for all parties involved on this deal. China can develop a nice place for the Chinese population to spend a vacation on these Caribbean islands â and China can develop tourist centers with hotels and so forth for almost nothing in places such as Haiti. And today transportation it will not be a problem for a round trip from China to the Caribbean with the Airbus airplanes capable of carrying 800 people per trip. China can move quickly on a plan regarding the Caribbean including Cuba and they can start implementing their plan as Fidel Castro still living. (But the old man can die at any time from now on.) It is no secret that today the United States has the most incompetent foreign policy since 1776 â the entire world knows that by now. Instead of having the foresight and grabbing the current opportunity regarding Cuba â The United States is doing nothing and they are hoping that when Fidel Castro dies they will be able to get pictures of people trying to leave the island in an effort to enter the United States â a real dream will come true for the US government if they are able to show on television around the world the Exodus of people trying to get out of Cuba when Fidel dies. The current US government is specialized only on the doctrine of fear and nothing else. The terrorists are coming, the Russians are coming, the boogieman is coming, the Iraqis are coming, the Iranians are coming, the North Koreans are coming â and some of them armed with nukes, and so onâ¦. Itâs Pathetic! ....................................................................................................... I have spent a lot of time in these areas and have houses, employees etc. in them... And I can safely say that what you have written above is an excellent and accurate synopsis...and I certainly hope that China....Brazil....and the Carib-SA non oil producing countries will work together to make things better for all... The latest US fiasco is CAFTA.... For one of the countries.....in order to adopt CAFTA....the IMF was called in because of the required abandoned tariffs....there was an overnight increase of 20% in basic goods where many incomes are $200 to $400 monthly...Cars had to increase 30%....etc.... and taxes were raised to all parties ...just to adopt CAFTA...furthermore because of subsidized agricultural goods... the sensitive agricultural population will be put in turmoil...and the main bank in the area projects a 30% elimination of all businesses....and this is just the way it is... Just how would the US respond had Bush imposed these types of policies in the US ? These people have one major positive regarding the US ..and that is remittances from US relatives.... If the ethanol industry can take hold...and stop the bleeding of paying for fossil fuels...money that leaves the countries...to the tune of 20 to 40% of GDP... there is no question that independence and sovereignty...and most importantly the reduction of poverty..the improvement of services...and social stability...would happen.... Without question...when the word Bush is mentioned...it is a very negative connotation to the US....However Clinton has a much better appeal and would give a sigh of relief to most people... I dearly hope that China...Brazil...and these countries will work together to form a win win economic situation for all involved.... And quite frankly...the removal of the Bush Cheney fiasco team would be a huge plus because of their negative affect regarding the higher prices of fossil fuels which is breaking down further and further impoverishing the financials of these countries... ..................................................................................................... I can further comment that without doubt...Globalization will leave out the majority of these populations in terms of financial gain if the only way to go is the US model... The problem is that ther is polarity between the two ends...Japan, US, and Europe will try to hold on to their financials and increase them....to increase them...they must take more from the lower end...These countries from the Carib-SA are in the lower end ...and will only spiral further down if the same models further their advancement... Just look at the facts.....If democracies count on votes...The US model certainly will not attract votes to a model whereby the wealth is controlled by 2% of the population... What will work is a wider dispersal of wealth...through what I would term socialized capitalism... US Capitalism and globalization only work for those that have some corporate paper whose value moves and outpaces typical interest rates on the corresponding currencies....
libertad. The CAFTA is a fiasco, but the countries in Central America are not left with much of a choice. They have to choose between sacrificing the agricultural sector that's sensitive to subsidies or sacrificing the services sector that depends on the US to survive. In the case of Costa Rica. 65% of the economy now relies on services, and agriculture is losing more ground every day. SouthAmerica Can you expand on the plans that china is implementing on the caribean? "free-trade intellectuals are starting to question whether the comparative advantage theory -- an idea that has had near-universal backing from economists for 200 years -- still applies," Can you expand on this, what theories are being considered to replace the comparative advantage theory? and what economists are leading this new line of thought? [I never liked that theory, is filled with holes... the first being that it only considers the inmediate term, it doesn't take into account changes in technology [and therefore price] that occur on a daily basis. ]
Excellent Commentary ................................................................................. The CAFTA is a fiasco, but the countries in Central America are not left with much of a choice. They have to choose between sacrificing the agricultural sector that's sensitive to subsidies or sacrificing the services sector that depends on the US to survive. In the case of Costa Rica. 65% of the economy now relies on services, and agriculture is losing more ground every day. SouthAmerica Can you expand on the plans that china is implementing on the Caribbean? "free-trade intellectuals are starting to question whether the comparative advantage theory -- an idea that has had near-universal backing from economists for 200 years -- still applies," Can you expand on this, what theories are being considered to replace the comparative advantage theory? and what economists are leading this new line of thought? [I never liked that theory, is filled with holes... the first being that it only considers the immediate term, it doesn't take into account changes in technology [and therefore price] that occur on a daily basis. ] ................................................................................................ I see the main issue regarding the US economic model as being one that leaves out adequate comparative analysis..... A family in Detroit vs a Caribbean family should be compared with respect to an overall well being...which includes satisfaction as well as adequacy in the basics...food..clothing...shelter....etc... The composite of goods and services coming from a $40,000 to $80,000 world ...to a $200 to $800 world are not the same.....standards ...climates...laws...etc..are not the same.... The idea of complete efficiency is always best is erroneous....It would be better to say that a fair balance ..including that of satisfaction should be in order... Good economics should not include the elimination of a countries basic agriculture...and other economic segments that eliminate sovereignty ....adequacy....and self sufficiency as a people as a nation...which are perhaps older than the US as a country...Economic change that eliminates hoards of groups of families and their well being should not be included in so called good economic policy... It is quite clear to me that Churchill was correct... The US does not have foreign policy...it has extended domestic policy...Correct policy entails street smart policy formed by natives on the ground...something obviously lacking...as well as basic humanistic common sense... And these countries do have better options than CAFTA....CAFTA is a failed policy from the get go...and has been approved very hastily...most politicians do not read the paper it is written on...all they want is to get a portion of the new loans that are going to happen because of it...and walk away....Its called CORRUPTION...
. Eusdaiki: Can you expand on the plans that China is implementing on the Caribbean? ******** December 22, 2006 SouthAmerica: I did ânot sayâ that China is implementing any plans on the Caribbean â I was just suggesting that China develop and implement such a new plan. As far as I know China is involved only in dealings with Venezuela because they need lots of oil in China to develop the Chinese economy. But a Chinese investment in Cuba and later in Haiti it would be as investing in a bankrupt company and turn it around. The Cuban turn around it would be easier since the Cuban population it is well educated, but turning around a country such as Haiti it will be necessary all the experience that the Chinese has acquired from many years of trading with most of the African countries. ************ Eusdaiki: "free-trade intellectuals are starting to question whether the comparative advantage theory -- an idea that has had near-universal backing from economists for 200 years -- still applies," Can you expand on this, what theories are being considered to replace the comparative advantage theory? ************* SouthAmerica: The comparative advantage theory is alive and moving ahead at full speed and the number one example to support that theory today is the trading between China and the United States. China manufactures and sells to the US everything that you can imagine, and the United States buys from China everything you can imagine â on credit. And these countries have an economic arrangement that works very well for both countries â China have been importing good paying jobs from the US year after year, and in exchange the United States borrow tons of money from the Chinese at below market rate to keep the American economy afloat â In turn the US invest the borrowed money in fiascos such as the Iraq mess. At the end of this story the Chinese would have transferred to China millions of good paying manufacturing jobs from the United States, and at the same time the United States becomes an indentured-serf of the Chinese when future generations of Americans have to pay back the massive amount of money borrowed from China during all these years. By the way, this is the same type of bondage that the United States used to offer to many South American countries through the IMF and World Bank loans. But finally the South American countries got smart, and freed themselves from bondage when they managed to pay in full all their outstanding loans to the IMF and World Bank. .
I dont agree with you in every point. Here in Costa Rica we've had quite a debate about it, and we still haven't voted aye on the CAFTA. But it seems that the only ones opossed to the threaty are those who have interests in keeping the state owned monopolies [since they make a large profit from the monopolies] Can you give me a few examples of the other options we've got... since the media here and even the ones opossed to the CAFTA have been unable to provide viable options for sustaining economic growth once the Caribean Basin Inniciative comes to an end in 2008. South America, thanks for the clarification. About the comparative advantage theory... it doesnt really stand if the two products are such as hydro electric plants and nuclear power plants[products that have a barrier of entry related to the time it takes to implement the production facility]. because changing from one structure to the other can take at the least a decade, so commiting to a single product would result in very high risks, a change in technology could change the balance of trade making both structures ineficient. I would like to see another trade model that can take into account the fluctuations in technology and labor that occur over time and the risk that it implies. Just like in finance we take into account risk when optimizing variables, not simply the expected profits.