The case for economic recovery

Discussion in 'Economics' started by kxvid, Oct 17, 2011.

  1. kxvid


    Absent very innovative public policy, I think another decade of economic stagnation is likely. I'm as bearish as they come, but I think there is light at the end of the tunnel. Here's why:

    The American consumer has become involuntary frugal, which is a nightmare for business margins. Habits die hard and even if the economy picks up people aren't necessarily going to be spending freely.

    By 2021, the baby boomer demographic will begin to retire en mass. This will strengthen the job market for younger people in order to fill the position vacancies. By then housing prices should be fully recovered, and housing market much more robust. Many retirement "dream houses" will be built or purchased in retirement-friendly locations. Due to the mass movement of people to retirement locations, a slight "buyers market" may develop in urban areas and a "bull market" develop in retirement hotspots. Housing prices should remain firm and the market liquid enough for the long absent "confidence" to return to real estate investing circles.

    Many geriatric-centered businesses are likely to be formed during this period, with great innovation in elder care. Recreation, health care services, travel & tourism related businesses should do well. The economy will need to readjust to the new shift in demographics. Entrepreneurs will be able to capture great profits in salient industries such as pharmacies, EMR management, fixed income investing, retirement housing, health care staff recruiting, insurance, etc. The employment rate will drop to normal levels and wages increase.

    What do you think?