I agree 100% and this has been my mode of thinking ever since i began trading. The real profitable traders will trade and make a living at it. Everyone else is pretty much full of it. Yes, there are a few exceptions and they are rare. Every strategy I ever read is useless. Every technical setup published is rubbish. Every pattern, prediction, whatever.. all garbage. The only usefull book I ever read was Trading in the Zone. --MIKE
Hi Folks: I don't want to hijack the thread, so I will simply say that the method (Carter Method) may in fact be a decent method to study and use. Obviously, anyone can lose money, even with a good system (think drawdown). On the other hand, I want to mention that I have some experience with TradingMarkets, having been interviewed by them a couple of years ago, and having had several conversations with Jeff Cooper who was associated with them. My impression was that they may not be motivated to A.) take a close look at the character of the persons they sponsor, B.) carefully investigate the system and its results. or c.) Advise potential customers of any shortcomings of a system or method for sale. They are simply retailers, selling a service or product to the public. Finally, I should make it clear that other than trying to help folks to get a little further down the road, I have no "axe to grind". In retrospect, I think the folks at TradingMarkets are simply trying to make a dollar selling services to traders who may be just starting out. I hope my comments offer some value to the reader. Best Regards, Steve46
Vienna, I applaud you for taking the time to warn us. I wrote to tradingmarkets on monday about this thread, followed up with another letter on tuesday - so far no reply. I bought the course 2 weeks ago; am not too concerned as it may have something useful (haven't had time to look ). Steve, thanks for your comments too. If they sell 1000 copies that is $395,000 (a bit less, as they give discounts sometimes). It would cover a few drawdowns.
To roberk, To answer your question... If in another account (whether his own or one he trades for someone else) he lost 40% of the account in 5 weeks, would that have any bearing on a potential purchaser of the course? It wouldn't have an impact on me when deciding the merits of his course about Pivot Point Entry Strategy as long as that -40% that Vienna experience wasn't via the Pivot Point course of trading the Mini-Sized Dow. Just the same, it would have a negative bearing on my decision if either his performance record has very little to do with the course method or very little to do with the Mini-Sized Dow and more to do with another market. To Vienna, Thanks for the clarification. Also, your right...in your particular situation...an audited statement would not have helped. I'm a little different than you in my reaction had that happened to me... If someone I entrust with my money and we agreed upon specific risk parameters... Then that trader melts away 80k of my money via ignoring or not following the agreed upon risk parameters... There wouldn't be anymore email exchanges...instead...he would get an unschedule in person visit from me. As you already learned...past performance is not a guaranteed for future performance. Last of all...congrats on trading in getting your money back. Bouncing back from a deficit of 80k is no easy task....most traders can't do. once again...congrats. To Trend Fader, Hmmm...when you say every strategy you have read is useless... Isn't that like saying whatever you tried you couldn't make money from it? Don't you use a pivot point strategy yourself? I myself use some price action only methods and have always thought how I apllied volume analysis, pivot point analysis, s/r analysis, trendlines... I always thought such a methodology was a method or strategy. With that said...most newbie traders don't understand price action only methods... reason why most start with indicators. After awhile (many many years of trading)...some of them (those still trading) will gravitate towards price action only methods. Why? They would have gained enough experience to understand price in ways that most newbies may see as voodoo. I use them both...price action only methods and methods based on indicators...I see strength and weakness in both. Yet, I have learned that whenever I trade via price action only methods for an extended period... when I do use an indicator...I understand the indicator a little better. To steve46, As usual, I enjoy reading what you say...I'm always picking up a little tidbit of good advice from you. P.S. Is John Carter's pivot point entry strategy a price action only method (calculations) ? NihabaAshi
Hello Everyone: Thanks NihabAshsi for the kind comment. Glad to see you are well and about. I do not know the Carter method in depth, however there are some comments I can make from a review of the sales pitch. First, it looks as though the method relies primarily on price action. In the text of the pitch, Carter does say that he uses some "confirmatory" indicators. To me this means that he throws in any of several filters. Again from experience, and from conversations I have had with folks who know much more than I, it is apparent that these "systems" can be useful if a trader understands how to use them. You see anyone can calculate pivots. Appropriate references are available throughout the ET threads. Also any trader can learn to calculate the midpoint pivots and incorporate them into a system. The real question is "when do I enter" and "when do I exit"? If you think about it, these are really risk management questions aren't they? For instance, I like to observe how price acts as it approaches a pivot , how long it takes to move through, or if it fails, how long it takes to fall back. Also I like to look back to the left and see what price has done when it has hit this area before. To me pivots are like offramp signs on a highway. As we draw closer to our destination, we pull over and slow down, then we signal and exit. If many of the cars behind me are on the way to a destination further up the road, they will tend to pull to the left and accelerate around me, speeding up as they pass by my off ramp. I think price tends to do the same thing as it approaches and moves by, or pulls off the highway. Seems to me that just being observant, one could develop a system that makes good use of pivots without having to spend $395. Hope these comments are of use to all. Best Regards, Steve46
I happen to sit in John talk in NY and this is from my note; use 24 hour chart for pivot, h/l weekly, h/l monthly, weekly and monthly mid points other than that the calculation is standard for pivot, s1,s2,s3 etc... for example pivot is h+l+c/3 and 8,21,65 EMA for day trade, one in trade use 21 for trailing and don't get out until 8,21 cross, again standard stuff. ps. I will review the whole show latter, stay tune.
Roberk, I will have to apologize that I didn't return your email yet from TradingMarkets, I was trading quite heavily today and was a bit pre-occupied, though it was my responsibility. Please don't tell Larry that I'm slacking on the job to trade, don't think he'd be too happy?! I'm going to pop my head in and play defense for John a little bit though as this is getting way out of hand. I've incorporated John's Pivot plays (which happen to be WELL, WELL know on the floor) into my daily FX trading and have had acceptable returns. I use John's methods in combo with Haggerty's and then other standard Fibonacci studies to pick my entries and exits. I'm up about 80% on my account since opening a small account with Refco in January. We at TM are not trying to reinvent the wheel of technical analysis but merely present material in a way that is comprehensible to the average online trader. I personally feel its a critical role that John, TM, and other Educational firms play as stats will show, 90% of traders who placed an online trade last year lost money. THIS IS SCARY. Obviously most of you out there are not doing something right and need all the help you can find. I'm very sorry to be so blunt but this is reality. As far as the profitability of our traders at TM, let me be the first to report to you directly. I traded for Dave Floyd, one of our morning columnists on TM, for two years who has a very nice business on the web site; modules, videos, live trading rooms, mentoring etc...And in those two years of trading next to him I think I saw him have a losing week perhaps 4 times, maybe 5? Then you ask if he's so successful trading, why do a side business.... The kind of traders you'll find on TM, and who I've personally spoken to and in some cases traded with, are in the business of making plies of cash during market hours. Then when the market closes, they are in the business of making more cash by helping TM customers making their own, smaller piles of cash. The commonality is they are fierce, driven competitors, who play the game as hard as it can be played. They are not the type of person who hangs out on a message board and posts 268 messages since joining 2 months ago. Again, I'm sorry for my being blunt and offending anyone, but this is reality. I'm very low man at TM on the sales force and have enjoyed, and profited, from the material i've sold at TM. This is just my perspective and would appreciate feedback. I would be happy to provide anyone with my statements of returns from trading the spot FX market. I'll post them here if I can find a way to leave my acct. #'s out. toddg@tradingmarkets.com Todd.
Ha, I know it. That wasn't very nice. I should apologize in advance. Roberk, I'll be happy to take care of you in anyway you see fit tomorrow. Our email list from Monday's holiday is a few hundred deep and I'm obviously a little behind. I'll catch up with you tomorrow. Todd.
Well Hello Todd: It is really hard for me to ignore this kind of post. Where to start, well first lets review your claim that " John's Pivot plays are well well known on the floor". I really can't let that stand. Some of us are either former floor traders or know an active floor trader. I have several friends who are actively trading "on the floor" of several exchanges. None of them use pivots. When asked they say that floor traders trade off order flow primarily, and when and if you think about it, it makes good sense. In an active pit, there just isn't time. The proposal that 90% of online traders lost money last year is an interesting one, however it means little to me. Also it does not excuse all the marginally effective "systems" that seem to originate not only from TradingMarkets, but from a number of trader oriented websites. What I have seen, is that the typical retail trader is likely to be receptive to the idea that he/she will be able to make enough to "trade for a living" (this phrase keeps on showing up), if they will just spend a few hundred dollars on a system. Apparently trading is the one profession where (according to TradingMarkets) one can realize their lifelong dream by just spending $395. Personally, I no longer buy the idea that system vendors (and their website sponsors) are well intentioned people just trying to help. You might be excused as trying in good faith to help out, but I can't excuse Mr. Connors who in contrast has been in the business a long time and really should know better. No sale on this one, and I hope some of the newer traders read it and put two and two together. Your going to have to do better than that. Good luck. Steve46