*cue cheesy Batman announcer from the 70s* "Is this the end?? Could our heroes have finally met their match?" I don't think it's the end of the carry trade and liquidity, but I think it could be the beginning of the end. The last few months have appeared to be the crescendo of a long and glorious run of the yen shorting, precious metal buying, DOW/NASDAQ propping crowd. And the end of the Japanese fiscal year, which normally sees massive repatriation flows, could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. This will make for a really chaotic month. I've shorted silver at 14.30, shorted gold at 666 (a fitting number considering what I believe to be about to happen), and shorted the NZD/USD at 6980 - despite the believe that the RBNZ will be raising rates this month (though I may temper this one before that event). I've moved my retirement funds in the S+P into bonds. I'm positioned as best I can be for the approaching storm. And if it doesn't come, you'll see me easily. I'll be the idiot with the rain gear and umbrella sitting at the beach.
Lets always always look at the picture as traders not what we would like to see. There were 160 000+ contracts against the Yen ( each contract is worth Yen2,500,000) , do the maths yourself, but l thought one rule of successful trading/investing/speculation is that the crowd may be right for a few moments, but ultimately they are always wrong , and provide great turning points, as opposed to top/bottom picking which is just plain stupid........ Thats my £0.01 on the matter....my analysis, perceptions and beliefs may be wrong though, thats life.
Depends on what you mean by unwinding. If you're referring to a rally in the yen, then no, I do not think it's too late. See what Monday brings.
I heard they did a survey on Wall Street recently and something like 90% of the people surveyed had no idea what a carry trade is. I'm guessing its not over.