The bulls are coming soon

Discussion in 'Economics' started by farmerjohn1324, Apr 6, 2020.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    There could be a virus volcano pressurizing in Indonesia.
    Maybe hot humid climate will stymie it......hopefully.
    The fatality rate is 9%......

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wo...t/news-story/f99b849c09d0995fdd448363140d991b
    • Exclusive Ben Packham
      FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT 10:13PM April 6, 2020
    The Australian government is closely watching Indonesia’s response to the coronavirus, amid fears the nation of 270 million people faces an economic and human crisis that could spark a breakdown in civil order.

    As President Joko Widodo’s leadership is called into question over his handling of the emergency, two former Australian ambassadors to Indonesia warn the stability of the country is at risk, and Australia could be called upon to provide financial support.

    Former ambassador John McCarthy, who held the post from 1996-2001, said the crisis could fuel support for extremist groups, which Mr Joko had managed to keep in check.

    “If you see Indonesia in deep trouble economically or if stability is threatened, it is very far from being positive for us,” Mr McCarthy said. “There are very strong nationalist and Islamist elements in Indonesia. And if the government was seen to be weak and the country in economic paralysis, those sorts of forces would be in a position to take advantage of that instability, and perhaps assume a dominant role.”

    Bill Farmer, who served as Australia’s ambassador from 2005-10, said the way the government was handling the crisis was “quite concerning”, and could open the door to civil unrest.

    “If things get desperate then there is at least the potential for large-scale problems of the sort you had in 1998,” Mr Farmer said, referring to the riots in May of that year that led to the downfall of president Suharto.

    “There was large-scale looting; businesses were set alight. There were attacks on the Chinese community; women were raped. It was dreadful.”

    Mr Farmer said Mr Joko’s reluctance to shut down the economy to contain the virus was driven by fears for the millions of Indonesians who lived “day-to-day” without access to savings.

    But the response, including a decision to allow the country’s annual hometown exodus later this month, risked allowing the virus to spread further, he said.

    As of Monday, Indonesia had officially reported 2092 coronavirus cases and 191 deaths — one of the world’s highest COVID-19 fatality rates.

    Newly released research by the University of Indonesia projected up to 240,000 coronavirus deaths in the country by the end of April.

    The worsening health situation has led to increasingly urgent calls for Australians to leave Indonesia.

    “You may not get another chance. There are no plans for assisted departures as in Wuhan or Japan,” ambassador Gary Quinlan said in a Twitter post.

    Mr McCarthy warned the crisis could leave the country in need of Australian financial support, such as the $1bn loan it backed for the country during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

    Australia also provided $1bn to Indonesia after 2004 tsunami, and $650m during the global financial crisis.

    He said offering such support once again “won’t be straightforward”, given Australia’s “Pacific step-up” and budget pressures at home.

    “But I think, frankly, the government, which has shown a certain amount of courage in this whole exercise, should be prepared to grasp that particular nettle,” Mr McCarthy said.

    Mr Farmer said Australia had “shown in the past that we are ready to do that”. But he was unsure what Australia’s capacity to support other countries would be in the aftermath of COVID-19.

    Indonesia recently urged Australia not to cut foreign aid to the country further, after it was slashed over five years to $298m.

    The Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program director Ben Bland said the Indonesian government’s response to the coronavirus had been “slow and piecemeal” and its public messaging “confusing”.

    “It has stepped up its response in the last couple of weeks but much more needs to be done,” Mr Bland said.
     
    #11     Apr 6, 2020
  2. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    That could be true. If the second wave is typically a fraction of the first and the third so forth.
     
    #12     Apr 7, 2020
  3. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Article seems biased.
    Indonesia population 276mn
    2092 coronavirus cases and 191 deaths, or 9% of cases, or 0.00007% of the population?

    Italy:
    132547 cases and 16523 deaths....12.5% of cases.
     
    #13     Apr 7, 2020