i disagree that earnings are the result of fed QE-etc. can anyone here intelligently summarize this with evidence? to me earnings are the result of leaner firms, and increasing demand. and guys..i am not a perma bull either..my trade earnings go up with market swing lows (as i have posted pl for yrs)..i just cannot be intellectually dishonest to facts as i see them.
I think the firms are leaner -- much leaner -- but the demand side is certainly trelated to rates. My contention is without the loose mony we would be mired in a very deep recession (maybe a depression) that would leave many firms without earnings. It's all weel and good to credit the Captain with an uneventful passage but it is the FED that has made the weather so calm. Imagine the storm without everything being backstopped by a surplus of money? BTW ... I'm not as critical of Bernanke as some. Greenspan, Congress and a generation of overspending left the man in a horroble position.
We just seem to be seeing more and more top indicators lining up. It's getting ridiculous: 1) Mom and Pop investors getting heavily into the market (Q: who's left to invest <i>after</i> these people?) 2) Previously bearish forecasters switching sides, or at least keeping silent 3) A very large number of up days in a row 4) Dubai completing a new world's highest hotel and commencing work on the world's first 1km high tower I mean come on. This is taking the piss.
don't count us baby boomers out I'm sitting on a pile of cash my depression era conservative parents no longer need I'm buying more and more stocks everyday at all time new highs and also rebuying bonds I sold at much lower prices a lot of wealth is being transferred from the dying to the retiring and that money is going into the stock market and we are strong hands, having lived long through 2008-2009 50% drawdown doesn't really scare us show me one fundamental that has gone negative they were bears in 2006, they were bears in 2009, and they are even more bearish in 2013, every tick higher they become more bearish, and they will just keep it up until they are finally right. I already have enoiugh profits that I can let it run against me quite a bit, until the fundamentals change. Every month, the fundamentals stay the same or get a little better. The only things the bears understand is higher prices. And their only reason to sell is prices are too high. kind of hard to take someone that has been flat very seriously no one that was telling me to buy in 2009 is now telling me to sell as a matter of fact, you'd have a hard time finding anybody that was telling you to buy in 2009
That's great. Now when the market listens to those wonderful indicators and gives us price action to observe that it has run (NOT IS RUNNING) out of steam we can avoid the dangerous game of trying to pick a top. We can have the comfort of saying to ourselves: "Self -- I believe the top is in and it has been confirmed by the anemic rally that has failed to breach the old high. Time to switch sides." Even then we risk being early. But before then it is just too random.
Congrats on making money in your account up until this point. I am no perma bear, I am a realist. For you to say that the fundamentals are sound tells me you are pretty off your rocker. Yes theres a massive shift in wealth occuring but don't think we are in boom times. The core problems (Fundamental Problems!) are still lingering. Theres a reason why a stock market drop is a random event. Markets are designed to go up, especially thanks to the helicopter ben. Can you please give me three arguments as to why you feel the fundamentals are sound at this point in time?
disagree with earnings being fed driven, really? increasing demand has only come because of the bailouts, tarp, qe and the trillions in money printing, with out any of those in place GDP would be negative!