see, the problem is most people are unsure of what the market is going to do because of lack of their own intellectual capabilities. They think, "fundamentals are not there yet, things aren't looking good, market will not rally" Most people try to short the market(avj joe we r talking about). everytime the avj joe thinks he can make money, thats when its time to go the opposite direction. You don't have to be a genius, you just need to understand how people think and how greed and fear works. 1. talk to old folks and ask them what they are doing with their money. Not the wealthy old, but avg old, just enough to retire. 2. talk to regular joe schmoes and ask them what they think about the market. when they say, "oh the market is so shitty, im taking my 10,000 out" or " Nah, im not getting in it, my financial advisor(jackass) will tell me when to get in" or people who just dont have a financial advisor and invest on their own and stay away from the market when negative news is floating around. I am not saying you should jump right in, but there is a time when you should and that can only be achieved by experience of the market. The shorts will begin to get squeezed out which should send the indices up another 4-5%. That would mean we have recovered about 10%. Then we could see another 5-6% rally when people start putting money in. Thats when new highs will be tested, if the indices close above the news highs for a couple of days in a row, then we could see another 5-6% rally. thats when the market is overbought, and you short the market as people will definitely panick. I am willing to offer my testicles if I am wrong. Mark my words. I started this thread a couple of days ago, I did not panick when next day market closed down a couple of percent. Some of you are such fools for making fun of me just because of where I come from. But we all know majority of America is living pathetic lives. I am too right now, but by brains and common sense of how people think, I should climb the social ladder.
Sounds like you're watching the dumb money vs. the smart money as part of a system. Watching the dumb money vs. the smart money is "one of four shock absorbers" in my system. Btw, I'm not short anything right now.
Again, we are in a bullish frame now. It's still not too late. the dumb money is yet to push the market higher. But before that, the shorts will get squeezed out for a 4-5% move. market closed mixed today because we are looking to continue this rally into a nice one. nice enough for a couple of percent, enough for me to pay off the interest I have been accumulating from the overelevaged account, plus a lot more to sit back for the next 2 years if i wanted. obviously won't do that. seriously guys, my small caps are especially crusing along. im the next big thing in the financial world. Also, those fuckers who were asking me to post the hedge fund jobs, why?? you getting jealous. maybe you should ask your manager at payless for a raise.
The bull market might be back, I'm tending to lean that way myself..but you list way to many reasons. If your wrong how easy is it going to be for you to back down from all of those?
Here's the deal, my portofilio is up about 17% since I started this post. I have stop losses at about 1-2% profits, so if anything, atleast I would pay off the interest without incurring any losses. I am set now. I will however start taking some profits after 4-5%, while I will let most of it ride till where i am positive it will for another 6% or so. Then I will take more profits. If highes are crossed, we will for sure see newer highs. i will keep scaling down after that poitn little by fucking little. This is has been long due for me. Finally its beginning to pay off.
My favourite words at the Poker table If you are ever around will take you for a tournament to Loose Cannon Club Here in London, a lot of retail lemmings have been pulling out of mutual fund type investments, and a few bucket shops have been reporting increased net short positions........bottom yet ? Personally my only vendetta is with CROX, its heading for Chapter 11, or maybe the Fed will create a "special purpose vehicle" to exchange plastics sandals for TY.
Hey congoboy, keep us posted, I am enjoying following up on this thread. And don't mind the haters. They are here for entertainment purposes So how is your outlook now? On the technical side I am still concerned that we working below the 200MA and still haven't broken above 12750 in the DJ. Honestly I'd rather the Fed let the bottom fall off so we can sink and start anew instead of bouncing endlessly in this range.