Congoboy, You are a contrarian indicator. I myself was debating whether or not to shift my bias and reel in on the shortside here. But your argument caught my attention. Bottoms are formed on the basis of an equity transfer from weak to strong hands as uncertainty escalates into full-blown fear. This is necessary because a market owned with conviction blows out the opposite side of the trade by failing to falter on the next troubling event to come. That reverses the trend. I thought that shift may have happened Monday. But the lack of volume and capitulation selling troubled me. Reading your post, I know why. There could not be weaker hands than yours. This market is probably filling up with similar lotto players. What do you suppose will happen if we retest Monday's lows? Your fate will be in the hands of a crowd of frightened, over-leveraged, low-conviction risk-takers, and we will finally get that capitulation sell-off.
The market has gone up because I was expecting a big break down over the past week. I'm expecting to get to S&P 1400 now, so if you're smart you should bet on the dow dropping 600 points tomorrow. I'll let ya'll know when I open my long position, so you'll know when to go short.
Bear market rally only. Watch for SPX 1400-30. The Bushites are doing everything they can to keep the market up into elections.
Consider this. The fed is not a bottomless pit. I read somewhere that after last Sunday the total funds injected into the US economy by the fed is over half what they have available to them. I can't remember the exact figures but I think they've pumped in a bit over $500 billion to date, and that they have somewhere between $450-$500 billion remaining. I'm no economist but that doesn't sound like a sure footing.
That's the best post of this thread! This market is heading down. This rocket shot today has got sell all over it. I am waiting a day or two more then I am shorting. Americans/Media/Government are all in denial. The Fed is absolutely disolving the dollar without anyone saying boo. Bandaids on a major hemorage. Nobody is buying TBills, last auction foreign participation was 6%!! down from 25% what does that say. Greenspan (who since he's out of the game I believe slightly more) was just quoted as saying this recession will be the worst since WWII. Wow!! Bernake is a no nothing idiot spending (debting) like it's monopoly money. US is going the way of Japan in the 90's no two ways about it. Why can't they just let the market crash? They are just prolonging the inevitable. The market and Americans need a crash, it's healthy for everyone in the long run, like it or not. I cannot believe the amount of idiots claiming this is 'the new bull market' on this forum. We just finished a multiyear bull market. $1000+ gold, $110 oil, yea were starting a new bull market in equities, sure! Go watch some more Britney gossip you know nothing morons!
As long as people are picking the bottom, THE BOTTOM IS NOT IN. Watch for a reversal in the next few days and a possible run up to test the 1400-1430 SPX in the the next few weeks/months. The Bushites will try to keep it from crashing until the elections. Whoever is elected is going to have a nice sh*t sandwich for starters.
The Fed actually has a balance sheet and they have used half of their reserves according to the media. As predicted the TAF 28 day AAA bailout has now been abandoned and the next step is for the Fed to buy mortgage tranches. I'm sure China, Japan and the Euros are watching all this with very mixed emotions.