The Bull Case for the NDX and the triple leverage ETF TNA, BGU

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by Port1385, Dec 13, 2008.

  1. I was on the ThinkorSwim conference call today where they talked about the market in general. This was one of the scenarios discussed. I dont have the chart that they provided so I made a rough draft of what I saw. The scenario they painted was of the NDX hitting right near the 1700 level by March. They highlighted Microsoft as a key stock. This scenario was being painted by Tim Knight himself who, as you all know, a long time bear.

    This is an amazing call from a perma-bear who is stating the market is going to rise some 47% by March. He sited such factors as the public regaining trust in the stock market with a new president in office. The market rising right up to inauguration and moving further up.

    I looked at Google, Apple, Microsoft and Qualcomm which make up over 20% of the Qs, but I thought that a 3x etf would give more bang for the buck. My calculations are that for every dollar placed into a 3x etf then a return of 3.41 would be correct if this scenario is valid. 1 dollar turns into 4.41 dollars. Placing 5 grand into one of these 3xers would give you 22050 by March.

    The chart does look like an inverse head and shoulders. The most volume is in the left shoulder with a high (but reduced) in the head. The market pivoted right at 1155 today which is where the left shoulder is at.

    The month of October, btw, was the highest volume ever recorded for the NDX.

  2. Noob here....what is a good 3x etf that tracks the NDX? I cant find one
  3. Rex84


  4. ganesh6


    I guess BGU has all the large cap tech stocks also. :)
  5. Don't leverage too much in this market. There is a lot of overhead resistance and nasty reversals that take place overnight (no way to get out from these leveraged ETF's). 2X is more reasonable