IB is defined as Introducing broker. Here is the issue as things get volatile. Taking the offer requires that you can trade through a reliable set of firms who are intermediate between you and the market. As this extreme set of complex conditions rattles the system, continuing to be able to participate is very material. Necessarily, those causing the problems and/or not understanding are going to be taken out. Getting taken out by association is an issue. It will not be a good idea to assume that the repeated cascading will be distributed. Poker is not like trading and vice versa. But what you see an major poker contests is instructive; you do see most tables have early winners and the table is closed as the pyramiding into the finals begins. As is known, this is a power law application and not Gaussian distributions oriented. There will be a chain of market evaporations and the closer we get to consolidation (intermarket), the relative premiums across markets will come into play as the zero sum game. Voraciousness is a thought that comes to mind. Intent parties will exercise their rights (power) to migrate at will. One simple example from portfolio theory. Valuing the premium between debt and fair value in terms of performance volatility becomes the measure and not simply comparing the cost of debt to the earnings of application of capital. Duration is the key term here as well. How far to the right "anticipation" necissarily goes is what is on the table. There is a marked compression of the fat tails compression visible at this time. Again, the equilibrium differentiation by power laws and not Gaussian distributions. Being on the right side of the differing market instruments will become more a comparison of market contractions (disappearing liquidity and capacity) than a comparison of money velocity (their vectors) choices in markets. With the rules changes (legislators abbrogating responsibilities) that forego integrity as a reqirement, we have a global situation whereby the "evaporation" has become a discovery process and not a market operating process. You can't have trading capital associated with clearing or brokering that is mingled with "off the books" (not marked to market) evaporation. Over 50 years of trading affords several experiences of dealing with the ways different balances of power have major causal effects in markets. All have been telegraphed since the PC and daily real time data transmission. Before that, EOD data did work, too. The notable difference was the pace or money velocity of taking the offer. Seeing 9/11 in the markets before the news was readable. Getting your capital was not an issue then in those days. Now, getting your capital is an issue. Practicing rotating it between yourself (not just your accounts) and the markets is a good idea.
As discovery unfolds, we are currently and conservatively sitting at over 62 trillion and it is not called a deficit. We are more upside down, not including this unaccounted for amount, on all significant curves than the 1929 series of events (and not just in absolute terms). Start thinking in %'s. Especially the three column cut that compares loss % and the % required to get back to even and the % required to remove the anomally in terms of time lost (for CW persons). Start using the beginning of the overlap of the end of the BULL and point 1, the beginning of the BEAR. (JUN 06). We are now three years into this opportunity.
Pretty realistic. But gotta admit - hardly blood in the streets now- just the opposite. The government is gonna give everybody what they want for free. "But wait, there's more. If you call right now, we're gonna save the planet too". Like the lady said, let 'em eat cake. My wild guess, S&P goes to 1200, in a year or so, then turns bear, breaks the recent 660 lows. But much more orderly sell off than the manufactured banking implosion. This time, gonna grind us all down to nubs.
At the moment ET describes this site very well, as many of the posters could not possibly come from planet Earth! Just when you think you've seen it all, someone always steps up for a shot at the title! Regards Johno