noticed this also, all the small cap stocks i watch are not getting killed as much as so called "stable"/ "blue chips" its ridiculous now.
I agree 100%. I wish I had the time, expertise and guts to play this right. This will be a "life altering event" for people that get it right. (well, or wrong, lol). Despite all good advice and introspection, I have decided I am too damn stubborn to abandon my POT, BG, MOS and FNARX. I will ride them to zero just to piss everyone off. (since they would bounce like superballs if I were to unwind; I have that effect on stocks/funds). I just may buy some out of the money double puts as insurance(gamble) though, if the IV isn't too ridiculous. I am subscribing to this thread to see how Cutten plays this out.
I'm thinking about jumping into some financials really soon, for a short term play. After all, the stocks that go down the fastest are the ones to go up the fastest. Maybe they haven't bottomed yet, but a short term bottom should be coming up soon.
I don't know. As has been said this is a once in a generation kind of situation we have here. I do not know if the normal rules apply. Some important supports have been broken and we are in what may be a third wave down leg. It is September and there is yet October to follow and the bulk of quarter and year ending window dressing selling. A lot of people here anticipating a bottom soon too. That chart with the increased volume and following bounce might lull some into complacency. The first time is always stronger than succeeding occurrences. The reaction to the Bear Stearns bailout was much stronger than the reaction to Fannie Mae and the news with AIG has been all but ignored even though the last two are even more dramatic. I'll be a bit of a contrarian and say if this market displays stubbornness and refuses to close strong above SP 1200 in the coming two weeks we might see a fair bit lower to come.
Cutten, in your opinion, for your anticipated Fri/Mon crash, are you thinking we just get a short term tradeable bottom or a long term investable bottom? In my view, I suspect we will get a strong down move next week; however, I don't anticipate a tradeable bounce from it. I anticipate a strong down move followed by a period of consolidation and then continuing to grind lower for the next 24 months.
Picked some XLF on the opening runup. beginning to regreat already, will have to just hang in there now
Just would like to add the reasoning here: VIX 36 yesterday CBI 5(usually it gets higher) XLF Big Volume selling which worked in the past News catalyst(World CBs intervention, imminent mergers, acquisitions and rescues, mean reveting nature of ted spreads) Its possible that I'm early and everything crashes but my downside will be protected by deferred fed funds futures that I own