I don't think we really had proper capitulation at the open. There was reasonable selling but not massive. The VIX is sitting steady around 33, whereas at a true low it would spike then rapidly collapse as the market soared. This is good for the morning session (I've picked up some Sep ES calls), but not for the rest of the week. IMO this could be just a temporary low intraday, not THE low. I think we're likely to at some point this week see more fear, lower prices, and a higher VIX more like 36-38. Intraday though I think it's worth being long, there is a distinct lack of follow-through in selling from yesterday's panic. A quiet market after a big selloff often leads to a drift up then mini-blowoff - the gap fill or the Fed meeting is the obvious place for that to end. VIX 30 is a good point to exit some longs/calls IMO. I'd not be surprised if we rally slowly into the Fed meeting, probably fill the opening gap. That's the obvious "news" everyone is waiting for. The trouble is that a cut is already widely expected, so a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" short into any post-Fed blip up could be worthwhile. If it blips to say 1210-25, I would pick up some puts.
Evidence suggests VIX might not be that important http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/07/when-cbi-spikes-but-vxo-doesnt.html
just as a reminder, Vix at the 1987 crash was above 100. So even if 32 Vix may seem high it can be by far surpassed. However I agree with the Thread Starter in nearly everything.
this could be setting up for a panic opening tomorrow. problem is, friday options expire so we could have a ugly monday. I'm going to wait a little longer here
this market needs some kind of news catalyst like the previous bottoms(massive fed cuts, bear bailout, fnm fre plan-short selling rules). but the injections of hope seem that need to be bigger and bigger each time