That is it, the government will not allow the market to drop. Get into ANYTHING on the long side because only few companies will fail. If they have enough employees the government will give them a bailout to keep them alive. They are willing to spend $1 trillion every week to prop the market. How can you fight that?
Lets see, decades and decades of expansion and great GDP growth followed by the greatest credit crisis in HISTORY that lasted all of but a year and they are throwing trillions into the system to prop up an already exhuasted economy... Doesnt make any sense. They will do anything to prevent the economy from slowing down and GDP from falling off a cliff. Tell me how the consumer which is already tapped out which makes up 70% of GDP going to do for this economy. This is one FUC$ED up SYSTEM.
Six years into the Roosevelt Administration unemployment was over twenty percent. Bailouts take money from the private sector, which has innovative people that create jobs, and gives it to the public sector, which doesn't innovate. The ROI is just not there in a bailout. The counter argument is that the gold standard screwed things up in the Roosevelt era, the rest of the world recovered while the US was still floundering, personally I don't buy that... Why does history repeat itself? Because what FDR learned was that he could use the bailout money to consolidate political power [buy votes]. I'm sure Obama is going to ensure that large segments of the population continue to vote Democratic while he "sticks it to the man" for them...