the bloodbath continutes....

Buy1Sell2 · May 23, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I have seen several posts concerning commodities leading the market higher or lower. It's been my experience that commodities and equities move inversely to one another. Certainly energy stocks get boosted by commodity prices etc but equities in general are hurt. This is all on a longer term time frame than daily and weekly charts. This is yearly type stuff. Example: The commodity run up began in 1998-1999 when equities were at their highs. Equities overall since that time have been flat to down. We have just experienced a 3 yr bounce off of the lows that brought us to back to the very recent highs, but this is just a bounce in my view. I would say that the commodity run up will continue , including corrections of course, for another 8 to 10 years. What this means is that equities will languish for that time period, with bounces etc.
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I just looked at the numbers . The S&P futures were at their high over 1500 in the first half of 2000. They are now trading at 1275 roughly. The CRB index futures were trading at around 210 to 220 in the first half of 2000 and are now around 400.

WOW

bigmrfrank · May 23, 2006

Quote from krazykarl:

no, i agree with you. i have a better record trending up then i do down, so it was a bloodbath for me.

i'm still a 14-month-old here....
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I wasn't twisting your onions ... just thinking out loud. FWIW, the *real* correction starts in early 2009. Until then there well be tons of money to be made on both the green and red sides. Trade well.

krazykarl · May 31, 2006

Quote from krazykarl:
-The market is pricing in a 500 basis point rate-hike by the fed. I think it will be one-and-done, but that one will be 0.50 %.
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Quote from Ivanovich:

I think there is no way in hell the Fed will be pulling a 50bp rate increase.
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060531/fed_minutes.html?.v=8

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the bloodbath continutes....

Buy1Sell2

bigmrfrank

krazykarl