Precisely my point. IMO. They're hardly the leading indicator. In fact they're the lagging indicator that I've always used as the tell to forecast the end of the cycle. Thanks for the sincere answer. I appreciated it.
I guess they can be looked at either way, depending on what they're set up to do at any given moment, and what their ultimate aspirations are (are they in retirement mode, do they want to expand, are they handing the business off to their kids?). Getting back to the tone of this thread - I have learned more about the business cycle and bubble-nomics in the last three years than most people will have the opportunity to learn in their lifetimes. I was up close and personal, seeing the actual homes and shopping centers going up from Phoenix to Henderson to Bullhead City to St. George Utah to Raleigh to Fort Myers to Clearwater to Asheville. I have seen things that I would not have believed if someone told me them four years ago - I would have thought they were insane or on meth. I absolutely believe the worst is yet to come for the U.S. and world economy as there is still so much overcapacity of everything, and because of my unshakable belief that the three most important economic foundations and underpinnings are employment, employment and employment. Not only does the world continue to bleed jobs, but those who retain jobs or find replacement work find their wages and benefits cut. All of this will lead to continuing deflationary pressures. The banking system is as sick as it was two months ago, and maybe sicker, despite the FASB gamesmanship, consumers are still reeling, credit is hard to come by, businesses are in downsizing mode, asset prices are still deflated despite quantitative easing...and jobs continue to bleed. Vapors.
I hear ya. Though I tend to think that (most) of the worst may be over in terms of residential RE. I'm buying condo's in LA at nice cap rate right now. Of course that cap could get higher but I feel ok about it now. BTW: have you seen the SRS lately?