Just wait until the sellers start dumping, and the hedgies can no longer manipulate the thin volume on pumping. The bears have it right, for there will be nary a buyer in sight.
At least you're smart enough to leave trading to traders. I'm not long or short stocks (I'm a small short in gold) but: 1. There's WAY too many shorts 2. The end of the world view is WAY too crowded (and I'm in their camp-too many of us) 3. There's peculiar strength in the economy. Detroit is supposed to be shite on earth yet the Tigers had 20,000 plus come out three nights in a row to watch meaningless April baseball in frigid temps. 4. The market isn't ready for it's next implosion until sentiment loudly says "the worst is over, thank God Obama knew what he was doing." For all I know it could take six more months to burn out enough bears to roll over again.
+1 Good commentary. As the WTF commentary begins to mushroom and proliferate, it is usually a good sign that a dominant reversal will not happen for a while, at least that's my perspective.
My caveat has and always is that I am not a trader, and don't dare tread those treacherous waters that are rigged by players having access to information I can't possible hope to have. If there was integrity in equity markets, and they weren't so rigged, and the markets were efficient and tracked real business conditions, I would take a stab at trading. As it is, I see threads on Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Dow Theory, etc. etc. not to mention the commercially pushed 'systems' like Vector-Vest, or whatever.