i'm not exactly and expert but can't it only be banks again and then everything else the banks provide for indirectly? but the point of this thread is there is alot of cash still on the sidelines and moneymarket accounts are not delivering good % so where else can the money go but equities...
I could not agree more that commodities have lead this market higher. Look at financials fading this rally every day. This market cannot go further until we get some participation from the broker dealers at least. It's been traded on thin paper from the energy plays and will soon correct a lot harder than people will be able to take.
Big Money Runnin' has been heavier in cash than they've been for some time now, not to mention retail, which has been nearly completely sidelined by the panicky headlines. Where will money go if commodities have topped, people are scared shitless of real estate, core inflation is destroying saving accounts, money markets, treasuries, and municipal bond auctions keep suffering heavy failure rates? Corporations don't even want to float bonds, as the spread will crush them. You really have two choices if you're liquid - equities or junk bonds (Wynn is paying 12.5%) - and there is tremendous liquidity. At the slightest whiff of a run, greed will overtake fear, creating an orgiastic inflow of cold, hard cash, right into equity markets. Soon.
BuyHiSellLo - Come on dude... commodities are firmly entrenched in a bull market and have not even come close to topping yet! Commodities are the best play for the next 10 years.
I respectfully disagree. Governments are on a mission to crush commodities and they will succeed. And if they don't succeed, demand destruction will (there are tangible signs it already is). "The best cure for high prices is high prices." Let's all play an easy game: Name the most likely place that each $1 liquid investors (institutional or individual) have is likely to go over the next 12 months.
Buy: While I don't disagree totally with your assertion, I wonder what you think will be the catalyzing event that will cause commodities to top (at least in the short run) right now?
I don't know? Spoo certainly looks strong... If you are correct, then bonds should tank... Now THAT's a bubble...
"Name the most likely place that each $1 liquid investors (institutional or individual) have is likely to go over the next 12 months." McDonalds $1.00 value menu?
The catalyzing event for commodities to top will be inventory bloat, whether because of government intervention, demand destruction, or both. I agree bonds are in a bubble phase. The next wave of stock market wealth will belong to the stock pickers - John Bogle and Jeremy Siegel will not fare well in this next phase. We have a schizoid stock market - very, very fragmented. Many high quality stocks have been beaten into a bloody pulp, often unnecessarily (I mean, c'mon, some great stocks are down 60%+ in the last year), others have flatlined, and some awful stocks have actually done well. Separate the wheat from the chafe, and you will do extremely well in this new stock boom. It won't be that hard, as it will require only a modicum of common sense, ability to sift through vital metrics, and the discipline to stick to the proper macro outlook.