The Biggest Payroll # Of Your Life

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pa(b)st Prime, Sep 6, 2007.

Which Way On Friday For Stocks?

Poll closed Sep 8, 2007.
  1. Crash and Burn (-200)

    13 vote(s)
  2. Explode To The Upside (+175)

    12 vote(s)
  3. Ho-Hum Range Till Fed Meeting

    22 vote(s)
  1. Crash like the last one? We were at the same levels on 8/02 as well. Got there the same way too. Hmm.
  2. Haven't looked at the initial reactions. But, since about mid 06 the relationship between the two has completely diverged.
    I.e. non farm payroll down -> stock market up.

    <img src="" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p>

    Go figure.
  3. nfp up; and stock up
  4. Yo Pabst....I've noticed that you're always looking for the "crash."

    IMO...One of the problems with seasoned traders is that the longer you trade the more you know. The more you know the more cynical you become. The more cynical you become the more bearish you get. The more bearish you get the more you miss that the market has an +9% drift over the long term.

    Trading Black Swans are a sure way to BK...over the long term. In fact there's nothing better than hitting it hard on the upside after a bad number. Vanguard and Fido doncha know.

    That being said.....I'm always hoping for a 20 handle gap to fade.

  5. I think it's pretty safe to say that there will be an inverse relationship between NFP and the market this time.

    NFP drops hard, the market will rally because a fed cut is a shoe-in. NFP is good or blows out the number, the market will crash because the media heads will roar about how the fed can't possibly cut with such a number.
  6. dhpar


    you must be kidding - or maybe is it just a massaging of expectations? ;)

    p.s. if some number get the biggest number of your life then you certainly run a bigger position than you should - let's leave the greed to other traders....

    let the force be with you :D
  7. split vote! lol classic.

    tough to game this #. :confused:

    Might be a strong whipsaw.

    Cash is king:D
  8. 84,000 jobs. SPX +11.75 at the close.
  9. dhpar


    would not mind that - in fact i think along the similar numbers.
  10. Another way to look at the difficulty in short term correlation. Notice the downtrend in data to march 07 preceded the bottom of the correction, as well as a 3 month rally. Likewise, although the last Friday report's initial reaction was down,
    it preceded a strong 3 day rally. However, June and July numbers marked local tops in retrospect.

    <img src="" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p></font></p><br />

    Also, notice every reaction is not guaranteed to have a volatile response (ex.. jan/feb).
    #10     Sep 6, 2007