Thanks Banjo for the tip about the cycles...I forgot to mention that on the flip side, the market tends to periodically visit that long term 7% growth curve which is currently at 1459 or approximately 24% lower from where we are now. So don't let a 20% drop from these levels surprise you as it would be a perfectly normal and moderate reaction by historical standards.
I would like to see a crude chart corrected for inflation. $30/barrel in today's dollars doesn't equal $30/barrel in 2003. So we are relatively much lower than 2003
You might also familiarize yourself with Hurst cycles. When cycles are properly applied and come into sync it's very powerful. Play with time cycles, months, days etc. See what happens when they sync, lack of opposing energy to each other. Of course nothing stands alone.
The Value Line Geometric index isn't shown frequently in investment circles. Some believe it is more representative of what an investor would actually make with a long term investment than with the standard arithmetic averages. According to this index, there is what appears to be a triple top instead of new highs, and a bear mkt is currently underway. Food for thought.
That is interesting...you'd think the equal weighted index's greater weighting towards small caps would provide for more pronounced long term advances due to the extra risk premia involved. Check out these long term charts from ZH that have data starting as early as 1789 that make the Great Depression look like just another pull back. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-08/long-term-charts-1-american-markets-independence
This is now the 5th worst month since June 1986 so we are now in the top 1.4% worst months since 1986
We had that big rally on Friday so it really pulled things up. So it was about the 20th worst since 1986, but still in the top 5-6% worst months You can download the historical data from Yahoo Or from CBOE along with a few of their strategies here http://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/monthendpricehistory.xls