This week has been very low in volume in the ES. It is almost as if we are centering this whole week for the longer term trends. Is this a precursor of a big move next week? Just curious as to what you guys think.
This market is very much like in February, it makes no sense, just moving around to whipsaw the shorts. Again this am in pre market. Last time it did that in Feb-March it ended on the downside . We moved under the 40 week MA except in the S&P, very often when that happens there is either a powerful snapback or a some kind of crash. It's almost impossible to get short in a significant way expecting the big fall because of these whipsaws that is unless you can stomach the swings in your unreal P&L .
The cash SPX shows large volume down days with declining volume this week. (a messy bear flag?) And the action on the 19th is a good short signal in my book. My take is we are working off support and have a 50/50 shot at popping up for more fuel before pushing through this support area. As previously mentioned, it's very hard to get short and hold it. It seems like smart money is using that short-covering to get short themselves. I'd like to hear more from db though.
As if Db has any idea. The bulls want improved earnings and a strong economy, even if that means higher interest rates. Without all that, they're holding a lot of stuff that isn't worth what they paid. They're not afraid yet. The bears are concerned about interest rates and would rather see things slow down. They don't have their forces marshalled yet. Unfortunately, they're pretty much balanced, which is why we are where we are. Barring some event, we sits. A body at rest tends to remain at rest.