Trust me when I say my grass does not get mowed like this or has ever looked this way so given what I was going through at the time (ie: PFG and trust issues), it doesn't surprise me I had this view to cheer up some of the problems around July last year.
at this reply: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33654&perpage=6&pagenumber=5 acrary said: Ok, now you have a timeframe for being consistently profitable. Now what does it take to achieve it? One more decision has to be made before continuing. What level of confidence do I need for consistent profitability. Some will be happy with 90%, others 95%, and some like me require 99%. So, to put it together in my case I require consistent profitability on a monthly basis with a 99% level of confidence. So in other words it's ok for me to have a losing month once every 8+ years. One series of studies I did was to find out what were the important factors in consistency. I did tests on size of expectation, % wins, profit factor, number of trades within a timeframe, and the effect of dispersion of trades (std. deviation) has on the results. For instance, here's a run for a daytrader that does 10 trades a day with 70% wins and makes $500 on each win and loses $500 on each loss. As you can see this is quite profitable at the 50% level (the average over time). However you can also see that after the 80% level the trader actually loses money. So for a daytrader with these numbers they only have a 80% chance of achieving their goal of consistent profitability on a daily basis. If that level of confidence is ok, then they have a example to use going forward. Model name daytrade # of trades in series 10 % of trades that are winners 70 Mean of winning trades 500 Std. Dev. of winning trades 0 Mean of losing trades 500 Std. Dev. of losing trades 0 Outcome Profit Factor Max DD 1% level 5,000.00 10.00 0 5% level 4,000.00 9.00 -500 10% level 4,000.00 9.00 -500 20% level 3,000.00 4.00 -500 30% level 3,000.00 4.00 -500 40% level 2,000.00 2.33 -500 50% level 2,000.00 2.33 -1,000 60% level 2,000.00 2.33 -1,000 70% level 1,000.00 1.50 -1,000 80% level 1,000.00 1.50 -1,000 90% level 0.00 1.00 -1,500 95% level -1,000.00 0.67 -2,000 99% level -2,000.00 0.43 -2,500 Expected outcome 1,950.00 Expectancy 200 I want to ask how did he calculate the %? like the 99%?
Good to see you back, chemically balanced, time travelling as usual. I was concerned Wasendorf had definitely drawn you away from trading and ET( All jokes apart, I hope you get returned the max possible...).
No need...just print out that quote on a page and fire it up. It's like peyote * crack to the LSD power.
I have not been impressed by any. There are hundreds of "educators" in the forum who as usual, do not backup their illusions of grandeur with concrete evidence that says, "listen, you can trust me, I know what I'm doing". As far as people making live calls, the transparency is never there, and if it is, it's not impressive, therefore, sorry to say I can't name one as of yet that would be worthy of such recognition.
I can't be anymore blunt about this: Every one of the trades I've made for my business is on a 3rd party website that only logs live trading results. If I'm not on the list currently bronze at a futures championship site, and top 10 most recent 365 day performer in stocks on another, what the hell else do I need to say? Ooh, wait, it's in the quote, let me give it a shot. Listen, you can trust me, I know what I'm doing! I even attempt to explain what models I use to do this, so why do I need to keep pointing to myself as the only one that qualifies by everyone's criteria? Is it because I don't believe in broadcasting trades on a public website who have no mutually beneficial interest in using my calls in any way whatsoever? I say if you can't trust the results posted on those sites then you just need to manage it yourself and see how you do. Otherwise, I'm just going to have to religiously rant about how nobody who thinks posting anything with respect to the trades you're doing is anything but an attempt to help your own positions, so as far as that goes, I know I'm one of the best traders on this website, and I don't need anybody to speak up for me or think that their history on elitetrader shows anything but an attempt to try to get others to follow your positions so that they have more chance of being profitable to the poster.