Part I : Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical and Statistical Foundations Introduction Chapter 1: Objective Rules and Their Evaluation Chapter 2: The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis Chapter 3: The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis Chapter 4: Statistical analysis Chapter 5: Hypothesis Test and Confidence Intervals Chapter 6: Data-Mining Bias: The Fool's Gold of Objective TA Chapter 7: Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion Part II Case Study: Signal Rules for the S&P500 Chapter 8: Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P500 Chapter 9: Case Study Results and the Future of TA Thanks for your interest, David Aronson
Can you tell me more. Is it a lending library? Does TD do reviews for this list and others and how might I get in touch with him. Thanks David Aronson
"the use of charts and/or chart tools in order to predict pending price action with greater than 50% accuracy" That's my definition of TA. Anyone using price charts with plain bars or any amount of price movement indicators practices TA. " um, no. charts are an ELEMENT of (most) TA but they are not the only TA. any analysis of price patterns (which of course can include volume, since volume is just price repeated)... is TA if you trade without a chart, but just watch Time/Sales (and I have met a trader who can scalp the YM futures this way), that would still be TA. simply put, TA is the study of PRICE FA is the study of elements that affect price (earnings, management, etc.) but not of price qua price. basically TA relies on the principle that by knowing the current price, and the state of market development (whether that be by charts, market profile, tape, tick, TRIN, VIX, WHATEVER) you can make entries/exits that will give you an edge. i trade futures (i mostly scalp) with TA, and I happen to look at charts (as i think the vast majority of people do), but charts are merely a REPRESENTATION OF PRICE OVER TIME. they are simply a 2 dimensional model of price over a given time period. they are not a necessary element of TA, just a common element. they are a way to visually model price and time. there are other ways to visually model price and time than a conventional chart (a market profile graphic comes to mind) and of course floor traders don't generally use charts, although they do have (to an extent) some sort of representation/memory of past key reference prices and volume in their heads when they trade but don't think for a second that charts = TA. charts are not necessary for TA, just exceptionally common way to model price. and a useful one.
Check out the amazon page. It's shipping already. http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Base..._bbs_sr_1/103-5827573-8896656?ie=UTF8&s=books Must have started this afternoon, it wasn't yet released this morning.
Useful information from market data demands a rigorous approach - scientific method and statistical inference. But the normal t-test does not work under usual TA practice. Data mining works for finding useful rules but the conditions must be right. I discuss those conditions Also results found via data mining need to be adjusted for data mining bias. I tell how that can be done and give away an algorithm for doing so. Of course out-of-sample testing will give unbiased results. Go to the book store, get a cup of coffee and check it out. It's not for everyone, but for those who are serious about getting valid results and want to filter out the nonsense there is currently no other book that tell how. Five years from how, who knows. David Aronson
David, Thanks for your interest, but LG is just pulling your leg. I am not a librarian, however some ET members who are grammatically challenged or those with congenital spelling disorders seem to think so. And then there is LG, who simply cannot stop thinking about me, or referring to me for no reason in particular. (Case in point.) That aside, the premise of your book suggests that it would make for some interesting reading. However, I surmise that generic "off-the-shelf" TA signals will provide the expected lackluster results. That's why someone can't just read a book and start making money. The stuff worth trading isn't readily made available for 3rd party testing. Just my opinion, of course.
Tdog, you are such a card! Just a reminder to file David's book in the 600's under the DDS... thank you for taking on this responsibility so the rest of us can trade.
There is little doubt that you are as much a trader as I am a librarian. (Your regular, repeated and heroic attempts at positive self-imagery are noteworthy. They speak volumes.)
I's be hearing you talking 'bout me. Wellz, all I gots to say is dat when Mr. Mackey axks "Who made dookie in the urinal" me thinks of TD.