As I have said earlier in this thread, I think that most of what passes for TA is BS. Further, perhaps some people can trade using exclusively subjective criteria. Unfortunately, I am not among them. I need to rely on objective criteria that I have tested and tweaked in order to get reasonably consistent results. Subjectivity, while not nonexistent, plays a very small role in my own trading. Against this background, the idea of using someone else's "analysis" (which is likely to be more subjective than not) without specific entry, hold and exit criteria (and all of the underlying research that goes into determining such criteria) is asking for red ink. Regardless of whether or not you choose to "believe" in TA, a TA department for customers in a brokerage firm is nothing but a marketing ploy. If the recommendations were worth taking, then the firm would not be disclosing them, at least not until after it was fully positioned. And guess who would then be taking the other side of your trades. Either way, I don't see how people can expect to get ahead with others doing their thinking for them. At least not in this context.
TA is just as accurate as the fundies, actually the charts can't lie, like a few CFO's that I have heard on conference calls. The charts don't stretch truths. They are what they are. A record of the past. And if used as such can increase the odds of profit. Will they work 100% of the time? No, and neither will the fundamentals. The only thing that I have found that works 100% of time is money management. A good money management strategy only needs a slight edge over a coin flip to be profitable. Actually will be profitable even with less odds than a coin flip. All of the books and having your own CNBC show can't make you profitable without one. First money management tip " Don't buy the book"
Total agreement with Money Management as the best (only ?) edge in this business. As far as this book is concerned, I was able to go through it thanks to this "Suprise me" feature on Amazon. I rarely buy books, most of the time I rent them at the Library or make some summaries at the bookstore. So I am frugale, I guess you can call it money management ! However this book intrigues me because it covers a lot of topics which can be used in other aspects of life (False corelations,....) Although it might be premature (just released), has anyone actually read it yet and can provide solid reference, as opposed to semantics, rethorics, and so forth.?
I've read it multiple times and it's a good read. In summary, he would look for stocks that would arise from essentially a consolidation pattern with a volume spike. Then he'd wait for the next trading range on that stock to develop. He'd place stop orders to go long above the established high in the newly established trading range and set his stop loss to just below the trading range. He'd use volume to confirm the strength of interest and potential. He also looked within the new technology industries for his time but he made a killing on one play that didn't fit the new technology criteria, but behaved in the manner he was looking for. Had no idea who it was or why, just the market action. It turned out to be a stock that was about to become a takeover target and he had accumulated a nice long position and had cornered stock (the new owners were only buying and holding thus contributing to his leverage). He wouldn't let the bears out until they suffered immensely and paid very dearly.
I think you are referring to the Darvas book not the Aronson book, which this thread is about. I haven't read the Aronson book yet -- I've only had it for a few days. It is fairly dense (esp. for a trading-related book) and thoughtful. It doesn't appear to be, as some people earlier in this tread seemed to think, a recipe book of thousands of trading rules. It really lays the foundation for the scientific analysis of trading data. One gripe: it is a typical Wiley editing job. In skimming the book I found two references to Occam's Razor, both misspelling Occam, but it is correct in the index. Wiley's editing always make you wonder if any critical mistakes have been made.
Many thanks. I am now in my 5th year of trading and this is , by far, my best year. I believe this is happening because I am , at last, trading systems that fit my personality, which is, mainly of scientific nature. I am a very strong skeptic in most areas of my life and I like evidence and scientific backups to prove to me that something is right. I am not saying that I am right or wrong, in absolute, just that trading your personality, basically, is the key to a successful career. And this kind of book seems to be in that category, ie, scientific, vs voodoo. I find amazing, this "surprise me" feature in Amazon.com because, randomly, it shows you many pages of the books on display.
look, i make a living daytrading (scalping mostly) index futures. i use fundies all the time for my INVESTMENTs, but when scalping index futures, fundies are obviously irrelevant as to whether i should buy YM at 12020 at 13:52 hrs, with a target of 12028. i constantly see this false dichotomy between fundies and TA. BOTH work, but the point is how you apply them. in futures, it is zero sum. on the whole, wealth is not made. but GOOD traders make good income trading - USING TA. year after year. of course, when I say TA, i use the dictionary definition, so to speak - the study of price and its derivatives, vs. the study of fundamentals. i don't use indicators such as RSI, MACD, or even moving averages, fwiw. the markets continue to offer opportunities because people are people and psychology - fear, panic, eophoria rules. smart traders, using TA can take advantage. i would never make an INVESTMENT without studying fundamentals. but when scalping index futures (3 seconds to 2 hours or so), TA is pretty much the only game in town
i do use charts. to put it briefly, i concentrate on key reference areas (various price points that have significance), as potential reversal points, i pay serious attention to market internals (advance/decline, TRIN, TICK, etc.) i am very rule based/. i have just over 20 setups (4-6 used most frequently, some only trigger once a month or less), and trade off those setups. it is not mechanized, there are elements of discretion, but stops are absolutely rule based, as are (primary) targets. i do use charts (basic candle) as well as market profile.