The best long term bearish bets

Discussion in 'Trading' started by lescor, May 10, 2003.

  1. If you were bearish on the market 1-3 years from now and wanted to make some bets that didn't tie up a lot of capital and that you didn't have to monitor, what would you do? I'd like to discuss ideas on how to profit from this scenario.

    Put options dated for '04 or '05 seem like the logical choice to me. I'm thinking of setting up a seperate account with about $10,000 that I'm willing to loose, with a 5 or 10:1 payoff if I'm right. I read Todd Harrison's work and he's most bearish long term on the brokers and FNM. Bill Fleckenstien is pounding the table again on tech as setting itself up for a big fall. He's also very bullish on the long term prospects for precious metals. Many people are also negative on the dollar.

    So let's hear some ideas. If the S&P 500 is down 30-50% from present levels two years from now, let's not look back and say 'woulda coulda shoulda'

  2. Fleckenstein went bear in 1996. Got in early and may stay late.
  3. Banjo


  4. T-Bonds should top out this year for a multi year slide.
  5. nitro


    Try the trade you wanted to make several months ago - short EURO.

    It still has some to go, but the endgame is near.

  6. are you sure, nitro?
  7. Vishnu


    It seems rather late to the game to be thinking this way after three down years. Most interesting is to think what growing industries and stocks will benefit the most from the next uptick in the economy. The market is most likely going up this year, and probably next, like its done on average over the past 100 years.

    You have three down years plus the spread between junk and equity at almost its largest ever plus a complete lack of supply of new equity. All of these things point in one direction and have since January 1: UP.
  8. From a fundie perspective, I personally think Blockbuster and AOL (the internet part) have antiquated business models.

    Tivo technology + payperview = no need for physical rental stores.

    The only reason AOL ever took off was because people needed a dumbed-down interface when the net first came out. Now, especially with the generations of computer literate kids, people don't need or want AOL anymore. People aren't going to pay for "keywords" instead of URL's.

    The ironic thing about AOL is the only worthwhile thing they have, AIM, is being given away for free.

    AOL is desperate. They know most of their services are worthless. That's why their commercials are trying to scare parents into paying for their parental controls.
  9. long term, the vidoe stores are toast... but i dont think they dump too quickly... in ther intermdiate term, a softening economy will put a halt to the $9 per head movie tix, when you get 2 videos for 4+ bucks at blockbuster or hollywood video... from my view, hollywood video seems to be better run, the local blockbuster has a bunch of oddballs working there and teh service is awful.

    #10     May 10, 2003