It is easy to distinguish the traders who are consistently profitable vs the ones that are failing throughout this thread. I couldnt have said it any better then AustinP, especially that trading is very simple but not easy. Sounds contradictory but so true. My definition of an edge is.... SYNERGY SYNERGY SYNERGY
But yes, there are definite point-counter-point patterns, ...channeling as well as various solos, ...manipulation ensembles, ...etf's/funds full up harmonies, ...indexes free form jazz, ...the language Greenspan used to scat to Congress with (hey, it's not as if Byrd wasn't being "informed" from somewhere too!) shrill runs, ...whip-sawing dirges, ...Black Monday discordant dissonance, ...after-market trading lullabies, ...Brahms, not the market bold fanfares, ...increased volume childish tempers ...the secondary market , playful teasing, ...higher lows and every conceivable human emotion all integrated into one continuous expression of "being". ...Dow Theory I have previously visualized the market dynamic more as a sea of motion with winds and currents of change. As long as one did not care where they were going it was always possible to be extracting energy and having fun. ...the invisible hand, like a sailing ship with noone at the till -- on God's autopilot. Clearly, the existence of the box "C" (e.g. C^2) implied by Pythagorean's theorem means that somone is always making money and we should all be dancing on both of the principal Cartesian axis to profit in both directions. Any way, it all implies that a Pythagorean tuning strategy could be used to resonate with the market for solo fun and profit. But my personal concern here is that such an individual extraction would in the long run be taken by the conductor as a discordant freestyle blasphemy; since the market's Pythagorean nature implies a circle of periodicity related to its radius r. That means all we ever really do is borrow and contribute to the whole. If my suspicions are correct that means no one can have their pi (ð) and eat it too; unless perhaps they eat and run and never come back for another piece. ...loved your contribution though. cordially,
Your original statement is all semantics, much like "the more the markets change, the more they stay the same." You'd probably say that Richard Dennis didn't know how to trade either. Markets have evolved over time and keep evolving, to say that only speed of movement has changed is oversimplifying. When incidental patterns which once worked begin to fail because participants discount the pattern itself, speed is a non-issue. Some of these patterns have worked for years at a time -- if you take the ultra-long view that these are not edges in themselves, that is your privelege.
It is hard to define a trading edge because there are many but there are some symptoms in a trader's behavior indicating that he is trading with the edge: -trading becomes a routine an every day is more or less the same -no or little emotions, calm trading -trades are taken more in an intuitive way (experience,skills) rather than analytical (charts,indicators) -trading account is growing steady, no wild swings -trader finds that there is more to life that trading, he has more time for other things like family, friends, hobbies -no more looking for a "holy grail", chat rooms, web sites, systems, mentors, seminars -obsessions with markets are gone -he is satisfied with his profession and results and works on improving his skills rather than searching for new methods of turning a few thousands into millions wishing you all good trading and finding a trading edge. trendtech
In Australia: "Brace yourself Sheila!" Nothing turns me off quicker than someone who makes a bald assertion and ends it with "period", as if that settles the argument. Period.
recognizing directional price instability at its inception is the 'edge'. It only lasts for a session. 'dont give up the edge', when I started in the pits, was told to me over and over. The edge is what the market maker has going for him. He can sell at the offer and buy at the bid, making the spread from quick bidirectional orderflow. Directional scalping is determining which side of the the bid-ask spread is more unstable. Then only bidding or offering. Then as the price slips in that direction, you will always be taken out by the floor brokers at the spread or greater. These two examples are the only types of edge, that I've come across. Others might say if you have inside info, you have the 'edge'. But its rare. If you can predict what side economic numbers will come out before they do, thats an edge also. Whether weak or strong. If you can recognize program trading orderflow at its earliest, its also an edge, then price keeps slipping in a direction your position was entered.
What indication do you have that that remark is true? Do you have some proof or is this just hearsay? I would be very interested to see it if you do.
Jack is in his 70's... if he's mooching off a girlfriend I'd say thats a more impressive feat than capturing the daily range