The market is musically Pythagorean. It has range, crescendos, diminuendoes, trills, rhythm, metre, pace. When you look carefully, you even see scales. That is the market's secret. But it falls on deaf ears. Now it is time for Jack to post.
Oh please, don't preface your statement with that old "with all due respect" Have the courage of your convictions and say what you mean with a pair of testicles Leave the passive aggressive shit to girls with big blouses And for someone with a mathematical bent their is no better mentor, friend and protector than probability, he'll never let you down... he makes you the house, he makes you the casino... booyeah
What is a probability? Right..........a chance occurrence of an event. So as a trader you are doing nothing less than taking a chance on the chance of a probable event happening from your what? Correct. From your deductions derived from your experience and skill sets. The best tool in the shed for that purpose is your charts. From those charts and keeping in mind the psychological brain teasers of fear and greed ....how would a trader make good deductions from just eyeballing a chart? Think as a poker player as an example: Texas hold em, 3 guys /gals are in for the flop. What do you deduct from eyeballing the flop? (think eyeballing a chart) You know where you stand and now are using deduction to give you insight to what the other 2 players are holding. (read in trading, how positions will possibly be played as prices do what price will do ) You are holding 3 aces and the flop is the fourth ace, a king and a queen, all off suits. What would you deduct from the flop? What are you visualizing the other 2 are holding? With some good luck the other 2 are holding 3 kings and 3 queens. The point being, deduction is an edge as you visualize the charts and guessing what is the best probable move next. Have Fun, done for today..........GO BEARS Dam these below ZERO mornings are time to fritter away on ET.
Edge=advantage, simple. If 'edge' is robust enough, and if 'edge' allows you to overcome trading friction, edge=positive expectancy. Must have positive expectancy (another poster referred as probability) to have profitable/winning strategy. Research my other threads to find examples of "edges" large enough to allow for positive expectancy. I'm always on the hunt for more, if you feel you have one, let's talk.
<i>"With all due respect, if this is your best definition of an edge, then you have yet to scratch the surface as to what is possible."</i> Too many aspiring traders spin their wheels trying to capture theoretical gains that appear <i>possible</i>, when in reality that leads them down the wrong rabbit trails <i>away from</i> success. Fixation on capturing every wiggle in a chart or worse, believing it is probable in real-time to book real money profits that measure several times a session range is pure hypothetical folly. No one on earth can harvest the day's range of a market in real money profits on a consistent basis, key word <b>consistent</b>. Impossible feat to accomplish in real time with real money over the course of time, period. Traders should instead strive to identify certain, specific occurances in a chart that repeat on a frequent basis. Don't treat trading as solving a puzzle, trying to interpret every wiggle. Successful trading is all about looking at a chart with objective indifference UNTIL a pattern of probability forms. That specific act is a trader's true edge. * Successful trading is very simple (but not easy): learn to identify situations on a chart where price action is most probable to move higher or most probable to move lower from there. Our role is to take buy signals when price action is probable to move upward, take sell signals when probable to move downward, and avoid the neutral zones in between. That process is accomplished in real time with real money using the same basic chart tools everyone has access to. Peyton will use the exact-same football Rex will today. It doesn't require a "secret" ball known only to one team for either to have success. Each player will use the same cleats, pads, gloves, helmets, etc. The silly notion of a trader's "edge" being something super-secret or unknown to anyone is pure crap. Likewise, less is more. The simpler & cleaner a method = system is, the more probable a trader's real-time success will be. Litter up a trade chart with 47 trendlines and four oscillators, the probability of real-time, real money success plummets. Simple charts, simple tools will identify situations of high probability. Taking the trades and managing them correctly at those key points on a chart is the definition of an "edge". There are countless "edges" possessed by an equally large number of traders. Execution is where rubber meets the road. The simpler a gameplan is, the more probable real-money profits become.