From what I read, just about ANY place that is considered "cheap' has already been inundated with the Californians or New Yorkers trading down.
Buying a house for speculation, and buying it to reside in are two entirely different things. It is like buying a call option without an expiration. You are buying value, and the value is virtually guaranteed to go up.
Over the past few years we have seen a huge influx of Californian money. That is what drove our prices up. When many of them trade down they have no idea what the market is like over here and subsequently pay 20-30% more than the house is worth to a local.
Talked to a Californian that built a 12,000 sq ft. house here for just under 2MM. She was pleased and I thought she got ripped off.
Vulture it has nothing to do with florida I do not even consider myself floridian yet. It is about P&L. That data about income is b.s. and has helped dopes on T.V. be dopes for years while speculators have made hundreds of percents on their investment. Supply demand data is probably better. I agree Supply has increased. Now the question is will the buyers chew into that supply or will there be a race for the doors. that to me is reality. It is the difference between suzie orman and a wheat trader sitting in the Pit in chicago or farming in the mid west. It has nothing to be with Florida it is has to do with actually being in the market whereever you are.
1. true you can duduct mortgage interest...but that is nothing compare to the cost of maintnance, insurance...and the break is no that big. how much is it to replace a roof or an A/C? BUNCHES! 2. Prices dont always appreciate. but they have the past 15 years. i promise. especially if you have a loan...you almost always lose money. If you take out a 30 year loan on a 100k house, all of your payments will total over $300k. that means you will have to hope you house tripled in value when the norm is it barely keeps up with inflation. 3. oyu cant always take a home equity loan. you can only do that up to 80% of the value of the home...when few people so that any more. it is also similar to just taking out a personal loan...but you get to write off a small bit...no biggie 4. You hit the nail on the head here. "the american dream" own your own home!!! i have owned several, and got out at a profit due to lucky timing. I rent (for now) becuse i can do the math. Where i live is about 40% less to rent over buying. not to mention i dont have to pay for insurenace or maintenance. it is ideal. I will buy another home when owning is again cheaper than buying. 5. I think those buying now (in MANY areas) will be in the red for the next 15 years.
Recent stat I looked at. In CA only 14% of the population can afford a house there. People moving out of that state in droves. In a decade those $500,000 Trailers will soon be worth what they really are $50,000. $1.2 mil for a crappy 3 bed 2 bath in San Diego. Outrageous.