I am not claiming round two of the price increases is starting. I am responding to all the renters who seem to be cheerleaders for a bursting bubble. There may not be a such large pullback in the areas that were in high demand by families.
Certainly renters are hoping for a pullback in prices ..... And I agree that any pullback will be moderated in areas with top quality schools ultra low crime (nonexistent) and family friendly communities........ But unfortunately even in these family centric locations speculators have moved in - most locations around the US. If speculators wern't holding groups of family friendly properties then I might say that they will be largly spared in a correction but at least in california this is not the case: speculators own large groups of residential bread and butter properties in the most desirable locations and once they come under pressure many of them will need to liquidate since as rentals they are completely under water. Most of these people / companies can hold out for a few years though and thus we wont really see liquidations by speculators until things get a couple of years into a correction ....
While I am not sure your prediction is correct it is what I would like to see happen for my own sake as well. I am unloading a property here in Florida in hopes of having some cash to pick up a 30 percent pullback in Carlsbad were I lived until two years ago. I prefer Carlsbad to Bradenton.
jem. hopefully you will see that pullback, here in sd, inventories are rising even with prices dropping a little.
Yes, Carlsbad is nice, as are many So. Ca. communities. My concern for Ca. is that by the time that properties adjust, many more companies and wage earning age people will have left the state, leaving behind a vacuum consisting of retirees and new immigrants. The last thing california needs is an exodus of capital and families .....
Not all States have gone up, here in Michigan my home has been valued at $550,000 for the past 6 years. If things pick up here it can double and still just be catching up to most States. Either way, the population is growing, immigration continues. People need a place to live and property is limited not like stocks, I don't see a problem until people figure out a new way to live, like underground or floating in the air.
You make some good points...but they can increase the float on any property, by doing a split. These days they call them condo's! What does 550k get you in michigan ayways?
in my area there is crime ( hell that mo -fuck that recently escaped from jail and got caught, the rapist, hit 2 homes near me); there is ok quality schools and eat or be eaten family non friendly community...and me house is worth $550k which i bought for 185k in 2000 and have put about 100k into it...LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION...peace