The bears were wrong

jackbyrd · Jan 11, 2006

Quote from Cheese:

Well I don't use trends for trading indices, but yeah, the bear is often a constant state of mind for some and they've made a huge noise with their yabber blabber throughout the present bull market to date.

C'est la vie.

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yes, how typically CHEESE-y of you sir. Please continue, we haven't had our fill of your worthless platitudes and not so subtle self aggrandizement.

Cheese · Jan 11, 2006

Quote from jackbyrd:
yes, how typically CHEESE-y of you sir. Please continue, we haven't had our fill of your worthless platitudes and not so subtle self aggrandizement.
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Well JACKarse, you just need to check to see if I've been a bear over the period I mention.
Can we instead have your claims on the question .. to admire?

rimshaker · Jan 12, 2006

Point well taken, and very true. But that doesn't mean there's no place for bears in the markets.

Bears are ultimately wrong because all of humanity in recorded history has improved through the ages. So it's not healthy to be a perma-bear.

But if one is savvy enough to identify a generational bear market move (1850s, 1870s, 1900s, 1930s, 1970s, 2000s??) that they are a part of... then by all means, be bearish!!

hairdresser · Jan 12, 2006

Quote from DHOHHI:

Don't agree with you. You seem to have conveniently picked selected time frames for your basis.

I was bearish in Feb. 2000, right before the NAZ tanked. Shorting VTSS at $100 was actually easy to do given the outlandish valuations. Where is VTSS today, 6 years later? $2.34.

The NAZ was above 5000 back then. Today around 2300. So it needs over 100% to regain that "loss". It's easy to pick time frames that suit the desired outcome.

One can be bearish in varying time frames, even intra-day. I think we're quite overbought now and expect a pullback so I'm bearish short term and started to short a little today.

You seem to imply that once a bear, always a bear. Not true for many people.
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You sound like a frustrated bear.

Copernicus · Jan 12, 2006

Quote from Kicking:

The bears were wrong. Even if this market drops 20% tomorrow they would still be wrong. They have been dead wrong since 2002 with their predictions of a Japanese style bear market. Bears were wrong in the late 90's too, they were also wrong in 1988 the year that turned out to be the mother of all buying opportunities. Bears pretty much have been wrong since the dawn of humanity. How can you be a bear and not shoot yourself ? Because of the upward bias of stocks not only is a bear more often wrong than right but a bear never admits to being wrong! The higher the market goes the more bearish a bear becomes. That is at the center of the bear's mindset.

We all have some bear in us, often one becomes a bear after missing a market rally. It's very upsetting to miss a market rally so you become a bear, you find reasons why the market cannot possibly go higher.

Bears are very creative in finding those reasons, much more so than the bulls are in finding their own reasons for the market to go up. Bears are, unlike bulls, actually very interesting to listen to, but you really shouldn't listen to them. Even if you have no bias, only use technicals and are not easily influenced, their rhetoric will influence your actions. They will say the market can't do this or can't do that, it always has done this in such circumstances. But the market has proved it can do anything it wants. And most of the time it wants to go up. In the long term the market is probably going to yes, the moon, well to somewhere the bears would never even imagine it can go.
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its January 12th, and bears are wrong?
lets check back on dec 31 and see how this mkt is doing

Ivanovich · Jan 12, 2006

Quote from kingcobra:

everything is relative.
shit, iraq used to be our ally.
now pakastan is.
europe used to luv us.
now they despise us.
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So by your example, the US is bearish on Iraq, and the EU is bearish on the US? But Pakistan is bullish on the US and vice versa.

DHOHHI · Jan 12, 2006

Quote from hairdresser:

Quote from DHOHHI:

Don't agree with you. You seem to have conveniently picked selected time frames for your basis.

I was bearish in Feb. 2000, right before the NAZ tanked. Shorting VTSS at $100 was actually easy to do given the outlandish valuations. Where is VTSS today, 6 years later? $2.34.

The NAZ was above 5000 back then. Today around 2300. So it needs over 100% to regain that "loss". It's easy to pick time frames that suit the desired outcome.

One can be bearish in varying time frames, even intra-day. I think we're quite overbought now and expect a pullback so I'm bearish short term and started to short a little today.

You seem to imply that once a bear, always a bear. Not true for many people.
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You sound like a frustrated bear.
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Not sure why you'd conclude that. Re-read my post again. The COMPX needs to gain over 100% to reach the 5000 level again. Do you dispute that? Semi's were incredibly overpriced in 1999-2000. I took advantage of it. So no, I'm not a frustrated bear. I've been trading full time 10 years. Anyone who is a perpetual bull won't cut it as a trader. And anyone who trades only the long side is severly limiting their ability to generate profits.

Are you a frustrated hairdresser?

originalskunk · Jan 12, 2006

Also, dont forget that the last time the markets were at these levels there were 40% fewer $$$'s in circulation. So maybe the bears have been correct all along.

duard · Jan 12, 2006

OK So an equity rally in spite of the inverted yield curve, rising interest rates, oil shenanigans, gold rallying, money printing among other factors constitutes a bull market?

Big deal the fed minutes innuendo of "less certain tightening" and you're "ALL INN."

In the famous words of my teenage daughter "WHATEVER."

Good Luck

hairdresser · Jan 13, 2006

This poster had it all wrong.