The bears were wrong

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Kicking, Jan 11, 2006.

  1. The bears were wrong. Even if this market drops 20% tomorrow they would still be wrong. They have been dead wrong since 2002 with their predictions of a Japanese style bear market. Bears were wrong in the late 90's too, they were also wrong in 1988 the year that turned out to be the mother of all buying opportunities. Bears pretty much have been wrong since the dawn of humanity. How can you be a bear and not shoot yourself ? Because of the upward bias of stocks not only is a bear more often wrong than right but a bear never admits to being wrong! The higher the market goes the more bearish a bear becomes. That is at the center of the bear's mindset.

    We all have some bear in us, often one becomes a bear after missing a market rally. It's very upsetting to miss a market rally so you become a bear, you find reasons why the market cannot possibly go higher.

    Bears are very creative in finding those reasons, much more so than the bulls are in finding their own reasons for the market to go up. Bears are, unlike bulls, actually very interesting to listen to, but you really shouldn't listen to them. Even if you have no bias, only use technicals and are not easily influenced, their rhetoric will influence your actions. They will say the market can't do this or can't do that, it always has done this in such circumstances. But the market has proved it can do anything it wants. And most of the time it wants to go up. In the long term the market is probably going to yes, the moon, well to somewhere the bears would never even imagine it can go.


    Don't agree with you. You seem to have conveniently picked selected time frames for your basis.

    I was bearish in Feb. 2000, right before the NAZ tanked. Shorting VTSS at $100 was actually easy to do given the outlandish valuations. Where is VTSS today, 6 years later? $2.34.

    The NAZ was above 5000 back then. Today around 2300. So it needs over 100% to regain that "loss". It's easy to pick time frames that suit the desired outcome.

    One can be bearish in varying time frames, even intra-day. I think we're quite overbought now and expect a pullback so I'm bearish short term and started to short a little today.

    You seem to imply that once a bear, always a bear. Not true for many people.
  3. 2001-2002 were the best time in decades to be a bear. seems like favorable conditions led to a bear excess population. they will find food but not as much. so they will be slowly led to under population until the next big bear market. everything's cyclical.
  4. maxpi


    I know one perma-bear, he takes anti depressants!!
  5. Hmm, in 2005 the markets spent 10 out of 12 months in negative territory, it's certainly very convenient to show up right now when they are barely 2-5% above their January 1, 2005 levels and declare that "bears are always wrong". It's also convenient to forget bullish Dow 30,000 predictions.
  6. plugger


    Well I guess since Kicking has 'figured' out this little secret, he's probably fabulously wealthy. Congratulations.
  7. Cheese


    Well I don't use trends for trading indices, but yeah, the bear is often a constant state of mind for some and they've made a huge noise with their yabber blabber throughout the present bull market to date.

    C'est la vie.
  8. everything is relative.
    shit, iraq used to be our ally.
    now pakastan is.
    europe used to luv us.
    now they despise us.
  9. =============
    Certainly true much of the time in QQQQ,SPY, and sometimes DIA;
    GM. most media still bearish, & much of the time has been bear trend:cool:
  10. mhashe


    There is a right time to be a bear, and the right time to be a bull.

    Threads like these on ET are excellent contrarian indicators. A few more "bullish" threads", and it's time to go short for the shake-out.
    #10     Jan 11, 2006