If history repeats, we will indeed see a major bear market rally between now and summer, followed by a long, painful slide over the following 2 years to new lows (probably somewhere around 5k or lower).
All bad news priced in. Unless the numbers are absolutely god awful the market will likely rally as it has done for the past 3 months.
States are teetering on bankruptcy along with local municipalities, so many retailers will be filing for bankruptcy.......the magnitude of the economic problems are only understood by a handful and the coming implosion is going to drive securities to new lows...many more economic and market domino's to fall.....watch and learn kids. continue to sell into any strength and trade away on both sides. This has been the greatest most profitable two years in my 30 years of trading. I hope some of you listened when I laid out the reasons to short financials and builders back in spring 07!
I am taking some profits by selling a little of my FAZ position. This market has the potential to explode higher, so for someone who is short it is a good idea not to be a pig.
Yes but over the last 3 months there has been something called fluctuations. Even in an up trend it is possible to make money shorting buddy. Stock trad3r why do you try and tell people how to trade when your time frame of trades isn't even remotely close to the traders you annoy on this site? Your like a weekly swing trader who is long telling micro scalpers to never ever short a stock even for 5 minutes. Do you see where I am coming from yet?
lol it's all priced in. There was a very similar doom and gloom mentality back in 2002, too. There are no more 'shoes to drop'. It is also interesting to note that the market has actually risen 8% since october 10th 2008 when you include dividends. The vast majority of people who have shorted the market recently have lost money depite the worst mental recession since WW2. The odds of shorting and making money in the stock market tend to be slim.
The market has actually drifed higher since October 10th 2008. All else being equal, longs outperformed shorts. Edit: you can make money shorting but your timing has to be very good. As I said b4, the vast majority of the downside in the last bear market happened in early October. The dow lost 20% in just one week.
I believe Obama already has the estimated numbers as he has been referencing the report in his news conferences.