the basic flaws in TA

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by marketsurfer, Nov 18, 2005.

  1. mogul

    mogul

    ok let's talk about trend following...

    I just had to go to today's chart of my (and everyone else's) favorite index at the moment...

    you can probably figure out where the entries are (indicator based too gasp!)

    :) oh, and this type of day is the norm not the exception
     
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    #151     Nov 21, 2005
  2. cnms2

    cnms2

    I wonder if what you're saying applies if we restrict the comparison to trend followers and mean reverters that use proper money management.

    I believe that mean reverters usually use Martingale strategies, that are proven to be deadly.

    Also, I think that mean reverters don't include those that trade channels and open their positions around an EMA or SMA, but don't open positions expecting for the price to revert to the EMA or SMA.
     
    #152     Nov 21, 2005
  3. That index sucks to trade. Too many jokers following it now.

    You need a really nice trending index like this...



     
    #153     Nov 21, 2005
  4. zygma

    zygma

    The charts are no more than a picture of the psychology of the market and TA the analysis of that psychology. The newtonian reference is to the momentum at a point and is obviously correct: price on very thin trade can go anywhere but when turnover is huge any reversal is unlikely to be sudden.

    Support and resistance levels dont appear by magic - they reflect the collective 'wisdom' of the market and are ignored at your peril.

    The major problem with TA is that many think there is an algorithm somewhere that will lead them to riches. It isnt like that. The analysis gives you a head start but at the end of the day you have to exercise proper money management proctices and not engage in wishful thinking about what the charts tell you.

    TA will not, on its own, make you a winner but without it you are very likely to be a loser.
     
    #154     Nov 21, 2005
  5. Oops, I forgot to mention:
    __________________
    Trend Finding is Edge Finding and Edge Finding is Trend Finding
    nononsense's axiom
    :D
     
    #155     Nov 21, 2005
  6. darkhorse.

    a question:

    what is your opinion of "fooled by randomness" by taleb. do you consider his work junk science?

    thanks!

    surfer
     
    #156     Nov 21, 2005
  7. Support and resistance levels are moving targets, they change as the stock moves up or down.

    Pick any stock and give its current support and resistance levels, those numbers become obsolete very quickly. Some quicker than others.
     
    #157     Nov 21, 2005
  8. .


    The meaning of the words support and resistance are actually after the facts phrases.

    Where to entry using this information is important. Some will figure it out , other will not, Figure it out.



    espically uninvited_guest

    :)
     
    #158     Nov 21, 2005
  9. Can you give a live trading example?

    Coolweb....your journal proves that TA is worthless. Another thread that shows TA is worthless.
     
    #159     Nov 21, 2005
  10. Considering

    every single trade I posted in my journal for the past 2 months were all 95% profitable

    Yeah, it looks worthless to me.

    lol

    are you smoking something?

    Maybe need new glasses, hanging around this forum for too long you can't even read straight.
     
    #160     Nov 21, 2005