I am back from vacation. The correct answer to the question above was 25 years. And since I gave the signal, gold rallied $50... That was one damn good forecast. Now I have a weak sell signal for gold, from the $600 level, we will see how it plays out...
How can you have a "weak" sell signal? Does that mean you are hesitant? I thought all signals carried an equal weight. How do you calibrate your signals to tell the difference between weak and strong.
That signal is built from 2 indicators. When both kicks in together I have a strong signal, when only one indicates change, I have a weak signal. Weak signals fail in a bigger %... That doesn't mean they can not be followed, just more caution is advised...Strong signals are just like that, damn strong... I also have a strong sell for oil from the $68 level, so far that one doesn't seem to be playing out. But if both commodities were to fall eventually that should be bullish for the Dow...
It's been a while, since my last prediction. I haven't posted the intraday predictions, probably I should. Anyway, I have a strong sell signal again, thus let's make it official: P#2: The Dow will fall at least 200 points in the next 6-7 trading days. Wednesday it closed at: 11354 It might not start tomorrow right away, but the safe side is definiatelly the short one for now....
Geez, you must have a big following in Europe. They started plunging a few hours after you posted your latest prediction. Dow futures are now down 60 of your predicted 200 point drop.
Yeah, this morning when I turned the TV on, I saw the Dow futures down 50+ points and I thought, there must have been an accident or something. Well, right on schedule.... Going into May is never bullish....
OK, I will explain today's action: Over the weekend, Bernanke was reading ET. When he realized that the market was slowly drifting upward in the last few days but the Augur said "stay short", he quickly called his friend Maria, who promptly released the news about B. being still hawkish on interest rates. That quickly took care of the wrong direction of the market and the Dow closed at 11343, finally below the level where I said it would go down. I think this explanation clears up any kind of missunderstandings. Stay short until further notice...
I have to declear P#2 a dud. I have 3 strong sell signals in 8 days, nevertheless the market rallied. Where is Maria with her inside info when I need her??
I have a weak buy signal. My guess is that we put the bottom in yesterday, if not, I don't see this going much below 10900, that was my target ( we reached as low as 10930) after the double bottom failed in the last week. P#3: We will advance from here 3-400 points in the next 2 weeks. Yesterday the Dow closed at 11002....