The Augur

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Pekelo, Mar 8, 2006.

  1. Pekelo


    Welcome to Pekelo's prediction journal! I have promised it, so here it is!

    If you have been reading my posts, you might be aware that I have made a few predictions here or there in the last few months. Most of them came to pass. I figured it is neater if I make them in one place, so we can figure my batting average more easily. Also if you want to trade them, there is only one thread to follow.

    So this is the diary of my predictions about the market, being made BEFORE the facts, as all predictions should be made. Here is the FAQ:

    Who are you? : I am an augur, called Pekelo. Pekelo is Hawaiian, and it means The-one-who-can-see-the-future. That's all you have to know. Really. When the weatherman comes on, do you care how old he is, or rather if it is going to rain or shine?

    History and batting average? : I wrote a similar journal for 6 months but the website went out of business, thus all the evidence was lost in cyberspace. And anyway, a predictor is only as good as his next prediction. I am guessing a 75% correctness ratio, thus 3 out of 4 predictions should get fulfilled.

    What is an augur anyway? : An augur was a priest in ancient Rome who was taking auspices, basically he interpreted the will of gods by studying the flight of the birds. In modern times an augur is a chartist who makes predictions about market movements by using certain indicators such as frogspit, virginblood and unicornhair.

    Really? : No. I use chartpatterns, BB, RSI, MACD and lately Williams indicators...

    Why the diary? : Why not?

    Seriously, why? : Because I like to predict. It is a hobby of mine... Also to prove that predicting the market is possible. Not all the time and not for everybody, but when the circumstances are favorable, it can be done and it is very profitable.

    Mission statement or goals:

    -- to entertain in an educative way
    -- to educate in an entertaining way
    -- to prove that the markets are predictable
    -- to kill time between long periods of waiting, man, trading is boring
    -- to make me follow my own predictions
    -- to have fun

    I am forgetting something, oh yes:

    -- to make money!!!

    Trading vehicle? : I trade the Dow futures (YM) so my predictions are based on the Dow's movement. But you can also use it for ES or NQ most of the time...

    Prediction type? : Short, strict, down to the matter. If you can not predict in one single sentence, you are a fortuneteller, not a predictor.

    Frequency? : I would say 1 prediction a day, but probably not consistently. Depending on how convinced I am. Sometimes 3 a day, other times 1 a week. If I want better accuracy, I have to bring down the frequency.

    Style? : I have a tongue-in-cheek style, I hope you noticed, so from now on, I won't put the smileys out all the time. That doesn't mean I am not dead serious about the market...

    Evaluation? : I will be numbering my predictions so it is going to be very easy to follow. After every 10 predictions I will make a statistics how I am doing. A prediction's outcome can be at least 3 different:

    1. Right on the money: (I am good, send me money)
    2. So-so: (at least I didn't lose money)
    3. Dead wrong: (you can sue my ass, my lawyer is Clarence Darrow)

    Since this is MY journal, I will be evaluating my own predictions. I know, I might be biased, but that's how it is...

    Typical prediction? : Will have a direction (Dow will go up...) a target (...50 points...) and a timeframe ( the next 2 hours). Evaluation occurs when time passes the timeframe. Occasionally I just warn about a quick move, without a target (the Dow will break down very soon).

    Rules of engagement? : You get what you give. If you are polite and respectful, I treat you with the same. I don't mind criticism, but I do mind assholery and jackassness. Life is too short to deal with idiots, so if you are one of them, I will just hit you with my lituus, meaning you go into my garbage can, and will be ignored in the future. I already have a few people on Ignore, if you are not getting an answer, chances are you are one of them.

    Fair warning? : This is my journal, so if you have another topic on your mind about politics,religion or what you ate yesterday, and an irrepresible desire to share it, please leave. Start your own journal. If too many people are going to start offtopic chit-chat here, I will just stop posting, and we all are going to miss out on something good.

    What can you ask? : Certain questions like my soc. sec. number (324-22-5448) or my favorite sexual position (Chinese fiery lizzard) will not be answered, but otherwise I am a jolly good fellow, and chances are good, I might enlighten you how I came to a conclusion. (watching the birds, duh)

    Editing? : I advocated in the feedback section the 5 minutes timelimit. Since the editing time limit is right now 30 minutes, and some predictions plays out in a short time, it is possible for me to cheat. I promise not to edit the prediction itself, so the price of the Dow is what timestamp the first post have. I only edit for obvious grammar or other mistakes. You just have to take my word and integrity, and please don't post about the possibility that I cheated. When I am wrong (and there will be times) I will say so...

    Tradability? : If you catch the prediction in time, they can be traded very easily. But you do it on your own risk. My lawyer Mr. Darrow is dead, so I am only responsible for as much as you paid me. That's right, and if I calculated correctly that is nothing....

    Language? :I am not a native English speaker, so don't bitch about it, because I really don't care. If you want good English, read Shakespeare, if you want to make money, read me. I also invented certain expressions, like "4" days, sideways to the downside,etc. and I will explain them at the appropriate time.

    Strategy? : I think strategy is rather obvious based on the prediction, but occasionally I will spell them out....

    If you can predict the market, why aren't you rich? : Who said I wasn't rich? But sometimes being right (I think we should go North before this hurricane hits) is more important than being rich...

    Why give it away for free? : Because most people won't get it anyway. Because I am making money anyway, so if you come along for the ride, good for you. Because nothing last forever. Because I got lots of things for free too.

    I really hate you, what shall I do? : Please put me on Ignore, and make both of us happy...

    Modest request: If you know a BETTER and FREE and TRADABLE prediction blog on the web, please let me know, then I don't have to watch those damn birds!

    Well, I think this covers the basics, so let's take some auspices, shall we???
  2. Hey Pekelo -

    Glad to see this journal as a follow-up to your %R thread.

    I think I understand pretty clearly how you use the %R, but would you mind explaining how you use the Bollinger Bands in conjuction with the %R?



    P.S. Nice call on the bottom of the market this morning! (on the "Williams Replies" thread)
  3. i have been followinging the other thread with great interest..

    One question I hope u can provide answer: now that you add %R as part of the setups, will u still keep using RSI?

    they're not identical in nature, i know.. but they're quite similar in helping u identify reversals/retracement if use in combination with fibs..

    a good example is the noon buy signal that both indicators gave today (LOD)..
  4. romik


    i will join in the auditorium, let's hope it's a blockbuster P.
  5. Pekelo


    Since they both work well in a sideways market, they help each other under those circumstances. W% usually gives a presignal and BB gives the target. When the market starts to trend, it breaks out of the BB, so that is a sign that Williams should be disregared for the next 3-4 signals. After that bigger move, the next 2-3 W% are good again...

    RSI is on my screen, but I usually use it for divergence, otherwise I rely more on the others. By divergence I mean when let's say the market makes a second high or even higher then the previous, but the RSI has a lower high, that is a very good sign that the rally is going to fail.
  6. Looking forward to your journal.

  7. When you say that you use BB for a target, is that a price target for entry, i.e. where to set a limit order?

    I use Keltner Channels for a similar purpose. Have you compared KCs to BBs and found BBs better?
  8. Pekelo


    I posted this under the Williams % thread this morning at 8:51, so I am not going to count it, but it came to pass:

    Right now the Dow is up 88 points, the Nasdaq was up to 14. The Nasdaq did go lower after the open before getting more strength, so it rallied like 18 points, from the LOD...

    Should have posted here..
  9. Pekelo



    I didn't find any signifficant difference between BB and Keltner channels, thus I guess you can use either. They pretty much give signals at the same time.

    Using BB for target works like this: Let's say the W% is hitting zero thus that would be a sell signal, but on the BB there is still 10 points to go to reach the upper band. There is a very good chance that it will go that extra 10 points before turning back and the W% hit the zero maybe for the second time. I figured averaging up/down ONCE is allowed to take care of this discrepancy between W% and BB...
  10. Pekelo -

    So would you enter at the first 0/100 %R, and then average in at the BB, or would you just wait until the BB is hit AND the %R is at the extreme for your first entry?

    #10     Mar 10, 2006