The shares aren't done, but I will be betting against a touch of $500 through March. Even with the dot-shot it's still cheap, but it's reaching diminishing returns. I don't think what is essentially a handset maker can scale beyond $500B in mcap.
BIDU's chart looked like that in October 2010 and it ran nearly another 50% in less than 8 months. AAPL's currently undervalued. Their 2012 earnings are projected at $42/share, a 50% gain over 2011 earnings. The big tears come from shareholders in companies whose stock price runs to ridiculous P/E levels based on irrational crowd behavior, when the fundamentals support no possibility of that sort of growth. GMCR and NFLX come to mind. You'd think they were about to announce a cure for all cancers based on the price to earnings ratios during their run up. AAPL grew revenues and earnings through a near-Depression recession and has shown no sign of letting up. AAPL trades at a P/E of 13 and right now as I type this 99.999999% of its shareholders are profitable. Look for crashes elsewhere. Maybe AMZN with its P/E of 135...
Also what 's very symptomatic is that everybody loves Apple. Look for crashes elsewhere ? When everything will crash , Apple will too.
This kind of frenzy happened with QCOM back in the go-go days. No one knows when AAPL will come down but it will come down. A simple study on economics and competition ensures it.
Look, I'm not saying that AAPL will grow at these levels forever, nor am I dismissing what the OP has stated in his post. But c'mon guys, I'm no perma-bull here or anything but why fight the trend? of course AAPL is going to pull back.. DUHH!! every stock and every index does eventually. you don't have be a genius to make that call, its when you make that call that makes you good! Apple simply didn't go up because of "bubble bernanke," or out of luck. It went up because it's slaughtering the competition. Don't compare Apples chart to BIDU's chart. THEY ARENT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME!! Bidu does not continuously innovate and CREATE different product markets. Year in and year out apple has blown out their quarter, while continuously slamming the competition with more and more products. This isn't a company with PE's through the roof, in the hundred, or thousands, IT'S AT 13 for christ sake, its still undervalued at these levels.. There wasn't even a market a few years ago for tablets until apple came along. And even now its not so much a tablet market as it is an Ipad market. I mean seriously guys c'mon they just sold 37 million Iphones. 37 MILLION!! there's 100 billion in their bank account, they can basically do, hire or buy whatever the hell they want. Their cash is bigger than like 95% of the S&P companies market cap... Look like I said above, I'm not a perma bull apple freak, but I certainly am no bear, I'm realistic. Will there be a pull back? yes. Will Apple eventually fade? 99% likely. This isn't a direct response to the OP for he only pointed out facts based on the chart, which are correct, Apple can't rise forever, we all know this to be true, but it can rise in the short-interim term and even long term. if you have the nads to step out and put the money where your mouth is, go ahead and short apple.. But it's going to go a lot higher before it goes a lot lower.
Of course they will pull back. But what I refuse to believe is a crash. Saying it will drop from $500 to $30 It can be. But I'm not a believer in such an AAPL crash.
As opposed to Grand_Super_Cycle who is almost always wrong, but still thinks he's invincible. More dangerous in my opinion.
Only thing is this move is extremely parabolic. Buying climax in technical analysis. I would look for a correction when it does reverse. Buy puts they are cheap. Everytime I see parabolic moves like this they ususally end in a correction. It may be a shallow one but would I buy Apple at 491.25. No way. There will be a better entry price. Primary trendline on the weekly looks like 420 area would be a good entry on a pull back. Its very over extended far away from the trendline it has been on from 2009. Im a buyer at primary trendline.
Feb 11 2012 Nine_Ender, It's fortuitous I took you off ignore. I never suggested shorting AAPL which is clear for all to see. As mentioned previously, you continually conflate TA analysis with actual trades. You do it intentionally but the question is why ? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236316 Importantly you have once again exposed yourself as a pathological liar. You are very good at it. Apart from being an embittered troll what is your motive for doing this ? I should disclose that a friend who's a consultant psychologist is fascinated by your pathological trolling and cyber-stalking. She no longer waits for updates from myself, but now reads your posts directly so I can have you on ignore. So now she gives me updates on you and i'm so curious i'll have a look myself... The psych wants to know if you've heard of mythomania - borderline personality disorder - histrionic personality disorder - if you've received psychotherapy as an adult - and are you're divorced and if so how many marriages ? Can you help her out please ?